The Battle of Michigan: The Numbers

Part 1 of a multi-part series.

Since Rich Rodriguez arrived in Ann Arbor 19+ months ago, one of the main focus points of his tenure, outside the actual football field, has been the emphasis, or perceived lack of emphasis, on in-state recruiting. The picture has been painted that Rodriguez is neglecting the pool of talent in the state of Michigan, a picture that has been enhanced and promoted by a united front in East Lansing. The irony is this was not born out of a desire to attack Michigan and Rodriguez, but it was the plan for Michigan State the moment Mark Dantonio arrived in East Lansing a full year before Rodriguez at Michigan. After the abomination that was the John L. Smith era at MSU, Dantonio was brought in to restore a sense of stability and toughness, starting with a renewed focus on the state of Michigan and a rebuilding of the relationships with in-state high school coaches that eroded under Smith. This became easier once Lloyd Carr retired and Rodriguez was hired. But this will be discussed more in depth later in this series. This part will be dedicated solely to the numbers and facts.

Of coure, being that this delves into the bizarre and erratic nature of football recruiting, even "facts" can be disputed at times. Offers aren't offers, recruitments are rarely black and white, and perception counts. Here, I will attempt to lay out the facts as I know them in an unbiased and objective manner. My own personal opinion will be expressed at a later time. To be frank, this isn't easy. This is a hotly contested issue between Michigan and Michigan State fans, and both sides have, in many cases, a completely different perception of how things have unfolded in the last two and a half years in our state's battleground. For example, many Michigan fans don't look at the 2008 recruiting class when looking at Rodriguez's recruiting acumen, as the majority of the class was put together by Lloyd Carr and company. For the sake of this analysis though, the 2008 class will be considered, and here's my logic: the on-field results (all the 3-9 ugliness) are absolutely considered when looking at how Rodriguez has performed as UM coach. If you hold that against him, then you must also consider the 2008 class when looking at his recruiting. It's uneven to dismiss the 2008 class as Carr's, but then not give Rodriguez the leeway of a mulligan on the field. So, point is, the 2008 class will be factored in here.

Another issue of contention is, who actually had a scholarship offer, and who was actually recruited to the end? Fans on both sides are conveniently selective on this matter. In a perfect world, all recruiting cases would be cut and dry like a Thomas Gordon, a Jake Fisher, a Lawrence Thomas, etc, where both schools clearly offered the prospect, clearly recruited the kid to the end, and clearly wanted him in the class before losing out to the other side. Unfortunately, things aren't that even. MSU fans trumpet kids like Larry Caper and Dion Sims as recruiting victories over Michigan. Michigan fans point to Cameron Gordon as a win over MSU. The reality is slightly different (Caper's Michigan offer was from Carr, Rodriguez never recruited him; Sims was recruited by UM as a defensive end and the two sides never spoke after the summer; Gordon had an MSU offer early on but was skittish on his position and MSU filled up at WR), but for the sake of clarity and fairness, when compiling the analysis here, an "offer" will be treated as an offer, period. The one exception I will make that I can think of off the top of my head is Onaje Miller, because I know for a fact that Michigan did not extend any sort of offer in his direction, verbal or otherwise. It wasn't a case of UM offering but not pursuing, or offering and cooling later on. They simply didn't offer, at any point, period.

Anyway...with all that said, let's begin.

In the 2008 recruiting cycle, Michigan AND Michigan State both offered the following in-state prospects:

1. CB Boubacar Cissoko, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
2. DE Nick Perry, Detroit Martin Luther King (USC)
3. RB Jonas Gray, Detroit Country Day (Notre Dame)
4. WR Fred Smith, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
5. DT Mike Martin, Novi Catholic Central (Michigan)
6. LB Kenny Demens, Detroit Country Day (Michigan)
7. DE Tyler Hoover, Novi (Michigan State)
8. OL Rocko Khoury, Traverse City West (Michigan)
9. OL DeOn'tae Pannell, Birmingham Groves (Penn State)

The score in battles that both schools offered: Michigan 4, Michigan State 2.

In addition, these prospects were offered by Michigan, but not by Michigan State:

1. OL Dann O'Neill, Grand Haven (Michigan)

O'Neill was the only one, putting Michigan's in-state recruiting for 2008 at 50% (10 offers, 5 commits).

On the other side, Michigan State offered these prospects, but Michigan did not:

1. RB Mark Ingram, Flint Southwestern (Alabama)
2. DB Charles Burrell, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
3. OL Ethan Ruhland, Lake Orion (Michigan State)
4. WR Keshawn Martin, Westland John Glenn (Michigan State)
5. RB Caulton Ray, Birmingham Brother Rice (Michigan State)
6. OL Anthony Woods, Melvindale (Michigan State)
7. OL Chris McDonald, Sterling Heights Utica Ford (Michigan State)
8. RB Glenn Winston, Detroit Denby (Michigan State)
9. DB Tim Dandridge, Detroit Highland Park (Minnesota)
10. DB Trenton Robinson, Bay City Central (Michigan State)
11. OL John Deyo, Richland Gull Lake (Michigan State)
12. ATH Myles White, Livonia Stevenson (Michigan State)
13. OL Zach Hueter, North Branch (Michigan State)

These numbers put MSU's 2008 in-state recruiting at 59.1% (22 offers, 13 commits).

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Understandably, the above data is taken with a grain of salt due to the coaching change at Michigan and the understandably dubious link Rodriguez had with assembling the class. The 2009 class is more clear.

In the 2009 recruiting cycle, Michigan and Michigan State both offered the following prospects:

1. DT William Campbell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
2. RB Edwin Baker, Oak Park (Michigan State)
3. LB Chris Norman, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
4. WR James Jackson, Grand Ledge (Ohio State)
5. WR Cameron Gordon, Inkster (Michigan)
6. RB Larry Caper, Battle Creek Central (Michigan State)
7. TE Dion Sims, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (Michigan State)
8. DB Thomas Gordon, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)

The score in battles where both schools offered: Michigan State 4, Michigan 3.

The overall score after analyzing both 2008 and 2009: Michigan 7, Michigan State 6.

**(Again, I understand there are extra circumstances surrounding Cam Gordon, Caper, and Sims. I'm erring on the side of caution.)

These prospects were offered by Michigan in 2009, but not Michigan State:

1. RB Teric Jones, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)

Again, only one. That puts Michigan's 2009 in-state recruiting at 44% (9 offers, 4 commits).

Here are the prospects offered by MSU in 2009, but not Michigan:

1. TE Reid Fragel, Grosse Pointe South (Ohio State)
2. DT Blake Treadwell, East Lansing (Michigan State)
3. LB Jeremy Gainer, Livonia Clarenceville (Michigan State)
4. QB Andrew Maxwell, Midland (Michigan State)
5. TE DeMarkus Bracy, Flint Southwestern (Cincinnati)
6. OL Zac Matthias, Hemlock (Wisconsin)
7. WR Dana Dixon, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
8. WR Donald Spencer, Ypsilanti (Michigan State)
9. K Kevin Muma, Troy (Michigan State)
10. LB Will Schwarz, Troy (Central Michigan)
11. OL Micajah Reynolds, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
12. WR Bennie Fowler, Detroit Country Day (Michigan State)

That puts MSU's 2009 in-state recruiting at 60% (12 out of 20).

At this point, a trend can obviously be seen, with MSU offering 42 in-state players in 2008 and 2009, while Michigan only offered 19. This will be discussed later in the series.

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As each year passes and both coaches establish themselves in-state, the data becomes more and more reliable. Let's look at 2010.

Both schools offered the following prospects last year (NOTE: Ricardo Miller is obviously omitted from all data here, as he was obviously a transplant from Florida):

1. DE William Gholston, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
2. QB Devin Gardner, Inkster (Michigan)
3. QB Robert Bolden, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (Penn State)
4. CB Dior Mathis, Detroit Cass Tech (Oregon)
5. DE CJ Olaniyan, Warren Mott (Penn State)
6. CB Mylan Hicks, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
7. RB Austin White, Livonia Stevenson (Michigan)

Much shorter list in this cycle. The score for 2010: Michigan 2, Michigan State 2.

And the 2008-2009-2010 score, head to head: Michigan 9, Michigan State 8.

To expand, Michigan offered these in-staters last year, while MSU did not:

1. WR Jeremy Jackson, Ann Arbor Pioneer (Michigan)
2. DT Johnathan Hankins, Detroit Southeastern (Ohio State)

That leaves Michigan's 2010 in-state recruiting at 33% (3 of 9).

Here are MSU's 2010 in-state offers Michigan didn't pursue:

1. LB Max Bullough, Traverse City St. Francis (Michigan State)
2. K/P Mike Sadler, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (Michigan State)
3. LB Austin Gray, Warren Fitzgerald (Iowa)
4. QB Joe Boisture, Saline (Michigan State)
5. RB Nick Hill, Chelsea (Michigan State)
6. DT Carl Davis, Sterling Heights Stevenson (Iowa)
7. WR Tony Lippett, Detroit Crockett (Michigan State)
8. RB Jeremy Langford, Westland John Glenn (Michigan State)
9. DE Taylor Calero, Southfield Christian (Michigan State)
10. OL Paul Jorgenson, Dewitt (Northwestern)
11. WR Tony Jones, Grand Blanc (Northwestern)
12. ATH Daniel Easterly, Detroit Cass Tech (Missouri)
13. FB Niko Palazeti, Novi Catholic Central (Michigan State)

Again, a noticably wider net cast by the Spartans. Their 2010 numbers check in at 50% (20 offers, 10 commitments).

Also, I again acknowledge and understand some extenuating circumstances with a few of these kids like Gholston, Bolden, Mathis, Olaniyan. I can again go into these more indepth when I editorialize later in the series, but for now, again, an offer is an offer.

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And now we arrive at the present. Both coaches are coming off underwhelming, disappointing 2009 seasons on the field, and one of the two has some warmth under his seat. But at the same time, both are also becoming more entrenched in the state and building relationships with the coaches within the mitten.

Both UM and MSU have, at this moment, offered the following prospects this cycle:

1. LB Lawrence Thomas, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
2. WR DeAnthony Arnett, Saginaw
3. OL/DE Anthony Zettel, West Branch Ogemaw Heights
4. CB Valdez Showers, Madison Heights Madison
5. DE/LB Brennen Beyer, Canton Plymouth (Michigan)
6. RB Justice Hayes, Grand Blanc
7. OL Jake Fisher, Traverse City West (Michigan)
8. LB Ed Davis, Detroit Southeastern

Eight offers apiece at the end of July is abnormally high, indicating a deep year in-state. The early scoreboard reads Michigan 2, Michigan State 1, and it will of course be much different as time passes. If I had to guess today, I'd say Arnett goes out of state, Zettel goes to Michigan, Showers goes out of state, Hayes goes to Notre Dame, and Davis goes to MSU. Those are 100% guesses though, no inside info.

Furthermore, Michigan offered these kids, but MSU didn't:

1. CB Delonte Hollowell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
2. WR Shawn Conway, Birmingham Seaholm (Michigan)

Until the class is wrapped up and everyone is signed, this number is purely cosmetic, but at the moment, Michigan's 2011 in-state recruiting is at 40% (4 for 10).

On the other side, here are MSU's offers this year with no UM offer:

1. RB Onaje Miller, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
2. WR Jake Duzey, Troy Athens (Iowa)
3. LB/S Taiwan Jones, New Baltimore Anchor Bay (Michigan State)

Again, it's early, but MSU's percentage this year is 27.3% (3 for 11). This number in particular will most likely change wildly if history is any indicator, as MSU will probably extend several more in-state offers before the class is finished.

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The summary?

Since 2008, the head to head scoreboard is Michigan 11, Michigan State 9.

Since 2008, Michigan has offered 38 in-state prospects, landing commitments from 16 of those 38 (42.1%).

MSU, on the other hand, has offered a staggering 73 players in-state. Of those 73, they've landed 38 (52.1%).

In the last four classes, both schools have offered 32 players. Of those 32, we must exclude the five from this year who haven't committed yet for the sake of the data. So, from those 27 over the past four classes who signed somewhere and were offered by both UM and MSU, Michigan landed 11 (40.7%), Michigan State landed 9 (33.3%), and 7 (25.9%) signed elsewhere.

What does all this mean, and how does it affect certain perceptions that exist? Well, there's for you to determine on your own. As for what I think, that'll be in Part 2.

Fighting to Live, Waiting Around to Die

There are those inside the walls in his workplace who have tried to force him out. More inside those walls who despise him for what he's done and long for the day where they get to pass his office and see him packing his personal effects into boxes, whereupon they shall stop and offer their superficialities and then scurry to their own offices and secretly celebrate what they will amount to a personal victory. Outside the walls, he has seemingly fewer friends and allies each day, to the point where it seems special when a supporter speaks up. The other day, one of Michigan's most trusted insiders told a tale of being at practice in the spring and seeing the wives of a couple coaches watching. So he goes over to say hello, and when he tells them he still believes in their husbands' work, one of the ladies begins to cry, because support is so fleeting nowadays.

Also outside the walls, those who carved out their own unique legacy during their time inside continue to wage their war, determined to drive this "hillbilly" away, their own xenophobia pouring from their mouths, and their own ignorance too enormous for them to be aware of it. And those who created careers here now turn their swords inward, using their positions and pens to spread exaggerations and mistruths in an effort to drive out a man they aren't even trying to pass judgment on anymore. For them, judgment has come and gone.

The cloud of toxicity and poison that hovers over Schembechler Hall builds by the day, and while it serves to destroy those beneath it, it serves to aid and comfort many observing it. 64 miles to the northwest, the Official Owner of the State of Michigan feasts on it. He channels it and spreads it as he pleases, because in reality he isn't the Official Owner of the State of Michigan, he in fact has to fight and scratch and claw for what he gets, and he does whatever he has to do to do that.

And through all this, Rich Rodriguez continues to put on a happy face, gets into his plane, and continues to promote his dream and vision to recruits. He continues to sell the virtues of the university, knowing full-well he could very well be months away from unemployment. He's confident, make no mistake about it. All these coaches are. They're confident, arrogant, and cocky. All football coaches, good or bad, have egos bigger than the average man, the good ones even larger than that. And despite what's happened the last two years, I believe Rich Rodriguez is much closer to "good coach" than "bad coach." And with that comes an ego, and a belief that things will be better. If you have the fortune to be in Schembechler Hall and speak to one of the coaches before fall camp starts, you will encounter eternal optimism and grisled determination. Not "coachspeak" optimism, but a real, genuine belief that this team is going to be capable of winning enough games to ensure the future for the coaches. But while that optimism exists, these are not stupid people. Rodriguez knows, although he won't discuss it openly, he knows there is a real possibility that this will be his final stand. And he will still sit in kids' living rooms and put that smile on his face and sweet talk recruits and their parents. He will speak to them as if there is no chance that he will be fired before the kid arrives on campus. He will talk to these recruits knowing that he may not ever coach them, that they may never end up at Michigan. When coaches at rival schools tell recruits like Ed Davis and Anthony Zettel, "Oh, you don't wanna go to Michigan, they're gonna fire their coaches. You don't wanna commit to a school that's gonna bring in a coach you've never spoken to", Rich Rodriguez and his assistants can't really do anything to refute that. He can't tell recruits "Don't worry, I'm going to be here, guaranteed", because there is no guarantee. None can be given by anybody. Not Rodriguez, not Dave Brandon, not Mary Sue Coleman. The best Rodriguez can do is say, "I'm not gonna lie to ya son, it's possible...but I promise you, we're gonna win this year, and I'm gonna be around for a long time." That's the best thing he can say. The rest is up to the recruit, and his parents.

Nobody signed up for this. Rich Rodriguez didn't leave the place that worshipped him for what amounted to a rebuilding project and two years of hell that has his name raked through the coals. The brass at Michigan, both present and past, didn't sign up for an ongoing firestorm that results in ugly, fractured in-fighting that produces an NCAA investigation, costs the university millions, and puts a nebulous stain on the cleanest football program in history. The former players who once donned the prestigious winged helmet, both those who have shot their mouths off and those who have fumed silently, didn't sign up to see the program they put so much blood and sweat into seemingly come undone in two short years. The fans and alumni of the university didn't sign up for this. While some of us have stayed loyal, and others gave up about midway through the Utah game, we all feel the same pain. It's been over 2400 days since Chris Perry bulldozed Ohio State's defense and sent Michigan to the Rose Bowl. Since then, that final game in November has brought us one nightmare after another, and while it's debatable as to how much Rich Rodriguez is to blame, there is no doubt that we are well, well below them at this point. There is so much to theoretically be miserable about as a Michigan fan. The quarterbacks are still young. The defense is young and still not that good. The recruiting has promise but it's all shaky because the coaches could be gone after this season, and if Lloyd was still here, our commit list right now would most likely include Anthony Zettel, DeAnthony Arnett, Justice Hayes, and Trey DePriest.

Perhaps the worst part of all? Nobody knows what it will take for Rodriguez to be safe. How many wins? Eight? Nine? Is seven acceptable? If so, do certain teams have to be beaten? We all know a bowl is required; is a bowl win mandatory? Or is the unthinkable that has been promoted by certain people in certain corners of the Michigan internet possible, and David Brandon has already decided that vast, sweeping changes will be made after the season? For now, I reject that notion outright. If Michigan wins eight games, and among those eight wins are Notre Dame, Michigan State, and a bowl game, the vast majority of people on the fence for Rodriguez will fall into his camp, along with many in the anti-Rodriguez faction defecting. Those who remain against him will always remain against him, and will be nullified. Simply put, it would be outrageous for Brandon to fire him if such a season should unfold, and thus, it is an outrageous assertion that he has already made up his mind.

But on the other hand, that doesn't mean he's going to go out of his way to do Rodriguez any special favors. Brad Labadie and Scott Draper are still employed in the athletic department despite their egregious abdications of duty that led us down the path to NCAA violations, which in turn led to Rodriguez laying down on the sword at the press conference (which, as an aside, almost cost Michigan one of their most valuable recruits this year). At the end of the day, I would like everyone (and I mean everyone) to remember: Dave Brandon is, above all else, a politician. Aside from the fact that that means he is very opinionated (and very stubborn), you cannot dismiss the possibility that he may still have an eye on political office down the road. With that in mind, you know he will demand immediate results, and could possibly want them from his own people. You could definitely make the case that if Rich Rodriguez rights the ship and starts to win, Brandon gets credit for aligning the factions within and smoothing things over. But it would be much more dramatic, and he would get much more credit, if Rodriguez fails this year and Brandon sweeps him out and brings in someone (like a certain friend of his currently coaching on the West Coast) who revives the program. In that scenario, Brandon is everybody's white knight, and his stock is sky high, and he's able to ride the wave of momentum into a cushy political office.

(Disclaimer for those who like to create tags on their blog disparaging me: That last paragraph is just me thinking out loud. None of the scenarios I mentioned are "confirmed" to exist. I'm conjecturing.)

I spoke to a friend the other day. This friend has a friend who once said to my face, "I'm a bigger Michigan fan than you." This person apparently refers to Rich Rodriguez as "Rich Dick", which, like...I dunno, I guess that's supposed to be demeaning. Anyway, I would love nothing more than to actually have a face to face discussion with this person, because I could tell just from a few snippets of what he said, he's the type of guy who still reads the Free Press, because he's oblivious to how badly they tried to burn Rodriguez with Stretchgate. He's the type of Michigan fan who listens to Jeff DeFran and Mike Valenti. He still believes so many untruths and lies, I would love nothing more than to take him to task in a debate. But I realize, he's not the only one. I don't believe it's a majority - at least I hope not. But there's still a sizable portion of Michigan fans who are still in the dark about the man coaching their football program and the events and actions that have gone down over the past 30 months. They're the type of fans who get their news from print newspapers, don't subscribe to paysites or anything, and simply tune in on Saturdays and expect victory. That latter part, I get. I understand that feeling, and I miss it, believe me. But to be so in the dark and not even try to acquire all the information you can, I don't get. I'm not saying the information from Rivals and Scout should be taken as gospel. Trust me, they have their biases just as everyone does. There is a moderator over at UM's Rivals site that is virulently anti-Rodriguez, to the point where he showed a stunning display of hypocrisy when voicing his opinions on separate incidents on the playing field involving Rodriguez and Beilein last season. Over at GBW (Scout), there is a very, very pro-Rodriguez atmosphere, to the point where sometimes you have to step back and take a deep breath. The Kool-aid flows freely there, that's for sure. So you always have to be careful. But to completely ignore the real "insiders", which these sites are, and to rely on a known and admitted anti-Rodriguez shill (DeFran) and a Spartan (Valenti) for your Michigan football news - that's borderline irresponsible.

It's July 1st. In one month, our favorite team will hit the practice field once again, gearing up for the most important season of our lives. In two months, that most important season will begin. In three months...? In four? In five? Where will we be in six months? Will we be replaying a late-December bowl game in our minds and on our Tivos? Will we be anxiously preparing for a marquee January bowl game against a formidable opponent? Or...will we be reeling from another culture shift and another coaching change, while impatiently waiting to see how our once-promising recruiting class is salvaged by the new guy?

The most important months in the history of Michigan Football lie ahead, my friends. And while it's easy for us fans to be nervous and hectic and apoplectic and borderline psychotic at times, the man who will lead us into the inferno - the man who has everything to lose from the flames of that inferno - will be upbeat and positive and fiery and determined. All while secretly furrowing his brow and lightly kicking the dirt because ultimately, his fate is out of his hands.

Fighting to live. Waiting around to die.

64 days.