Showing posts with label Battle of Michigan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Battle of Michigan. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

The Battle of Michigan: The Arab Spring

Welcome to Part 5. Part 1: The Numbers. Part 2: The War of Perception. Part 3: The PSL. Part 4: 2011 and 2012.



There's a Latin saying I like to use a lot, mainly because it makes me look much more cultured than I actually am, partially because Kiefer Sutherland used it in Desert Saints, and also because it's pretty damn true.

De gestibus non est disputandum.

Literally translated, it means, "there is no disputing about tastes." Its meaning, in case it's not obvious, is that when it comes to matters of opinion, debate is pointless. If you're trying to engage someone in an argument about something they have strong belief in, you're never going to win. You can't talk people out of their beliefs, whether it be religion, politics, music, or...football.

For the past three years, many (most?) Michigan fans did everything they could to excuse Rich Rodriguez. The list of deflections and excuses is extensive, ranging from everything between the red wristbands he wore to the actual play on the field. Only when faced with an excessively overwhelming heap of evidence did the vast majority of Michigan fans finally agree that he simply wasn't going to get it done, and that the future no longer held any promise of improvement under his guidance. But until the evidence was mountain-high - increasingly laughable losses to Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and finally Mississippi State - did the diehards (myself included) finally abandon ship. The breaking point was different for everyone - for me the MSU game put one foot out the door, and the PSU game put the other one out and slammed the door shut - but until we each reached that point, we stood strong in our beliefs and convictions, no matter what anyone else said.

That is why Michigan fans won't win the fight against Michigan State fans, and vice versa. It's like Muslims vs. Jews at this point. Neither side can convince the other out of the belief that the other side is destined to lose the endless struggle. There's always some sort of excuse, and that applies to both sides. For three years, we've heard MSU fans (and recruits) jabbering about Michigan disrespecting the state by not pursuing many of the in-state players, and how Michigan State was "turning the state green" and that "Michigan State is THE university of Michigan", and other superlative, hyperbolic nonsense. During this time, Michigan fans had some good reasons and some bad reasons for this. A good reason was the blatant and obvious influences of certain people on the recruitments of certain star prospects now residing in East Lansing and Columbus. There was nothing Rich Rodriguez could've done to change these situations, because they began to fester under Carr. A bad reason was the "Michigan doesn't have enough talent, we'll recruit nationally anyway" schtick. Yes, Michigan is down the totem pole in terms of sheer numbers when it comes to high school talent in football. But if you toss it by the wayside, the stars you miss on will almost always come back to bite you, and that's as painful as not having them on your team. We got lucky in the Epic Fail 2007 Class when Ronald Johnson, Dionte Allen, Joseph Barksdale, and others left entirely, instead of picking local rivals of UofM. Not so lucky in recent years; regardless of how they got there, William Gholston and Lawrence Thomas at Michigan State are problems. Johnathan Hankins at Ohio State is a problem. When the neighbors set up shop in your kitchen and start cherry picking your groceries, it's not as simple as going back to the market to get more.

So now, present day. Three years of submitting to our East Lansing Overlords has given way to an uprising and demanding an end to the Dantonio regime, and our new leader dares to tread on the dictator's territory. And once he does, and has, a different line of rhetoric begins, one that is inherently laughable: that Michigan State is evolving into a national recruiting power and can afford to miss out on the state's best players, because they'll get equal or better ones from elsewhere - sounds eeriely like the comments from Michigan fans the last three years that MSU fans heartily laughed at while hanging their "Mission Accomplished" banner over the mitten.

Another excuse is "All the kids Michigan is landing were scUM leans anyway." Oh, so you're implying the playing field wasn't fair? And you feel comfortable stating this while Gholston, Fred Smith and Ed Davis put on MSU jerseys while their high school coach spends his days fetching Dantonio's coffee and bran muffin each morning? You're okay with that position while Lawrence Thomas and Mylan Hicks suit up for the Spartans, knowing that their coach from Renaissance famously threw UofM under the bus while bouncing Dantonio's balls off his chin? Things considerably soured for Michigan at OLSM during the latter years of Carr and Rodriguez's three years, and yet when Hoke comes in and immediately lands James Ross (the best player in the state), you get one of two excuses. One follows the mindset summed up by the title of a post on a Michigan State message board: "(OLSM coach George) Porritt showing his true Blue colors again", the comical notion that Porritt favors Michigan despite sending Kalin Lucas, Jon Misch and Dion Sims to East Lansing in recent years. The other is "Ross is too small anyway." He's the same size Greg Jones was in high school. I think he worked out pretty well for MSU. Ross was also a high priority for both Ohio State and Penn State, two schools that I'm pretty sure know a thing or two about linebacking.

And then when presented with the cases of Mario Ojemudia and Devin Funchess, students at a notoriously pro-MSU school in Farmington Hills Harrison (Agim Shabaj, Drew Stanton, Mark Dell), a school still heavily influenced by former Spartan Mill Coleman, MSU fans play the "playing time" card. Lifelong Michigan State fan Ojemudia was obviously scared away by depth chart at MSU and was sold on a dream by Hoke and Mattison. So basically, Hoke's taking the same approach Dantonio took when he arrived at Michigan State, but it's a shallow and flimsy pitch this time. At Cass Tech, MSU fans were all excited to be in the top two for Dior Mathis, and got their hopes up when MSU offered Royce Jenkins-Stone and Terry Richardson before Michigan did. And then when Dior was clearly ticketed for Oregon, and Richardson seems bound for Ann Arbor, they're both far too small and too Cissoko-like to ever be impact players. Never mind that Oregon is developing a pretty impressive track record with defensive backs, or the fact that Richardson has offers from Alabama, USC, Ohio State, Penn State, and other elite programs. If Nick Saban offers you as a defensive back, chances are you're pretty good at football. But by all means, pigeon-hole the kid because his size resembles that of another player who had already graduated from Cass by the time Terry got there. If Richardson went to Renaissance, MSU fans would be comparing him to Mylan Hicks. But because he goes to Cass Tech, he's Cissoko part two. Comparing players because they go to the same high school is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.

If Richardson was too small, Dantonio wouldn't have offered him. If Ross was too small, Dantonio wouldn't have offered him. If Ojemudia was too small, Dantonio wouldn't have offered him. You don't offer recruits a year before they sign if they aren't at the top of your board. I'm pretty sure James Ross was the first recruit either school offered for this class. He isn't "ideal" linebacker size, and isn't a physically imposing specimen like Gholston or Thomas. But he's also much, much more advanced as a football player than either of those two. That's not to say Gholston or LT won't be great. They absolutely can be. But so can Ross. His instincts are unmatched, and MSU fans trying to dismiss his commitment to Michigan as "he's too small" or "UM has more playing time" or "he was always a Michigan lean" are chewing on some exceptionally sour grapes.

Stop trying to spin what is plainly obvious: your "in-state dominance" was more a result of Michigan being thrown in the tank for three years. "Lifelong Michigan fans" still went elsewhere during Rodriguez's tenure. Whatever infrastructure Dantonio built in the state has already been surpassed by Hoke. If you think a bumpy first year will suddenly open the eyes of the recruits who have committed, and there will be some mass defection, you are sorely, sorely mistaken. Even Rodriguez never lost a single in-state recruit he got a verbal commitment from. The only in-state kid Michigan lost in recent memory (who was publically committed) was Jake Fisher, and that was because of the coaching change. Michigan State is coming off a (shared) Big Ten Championship, and an 11-win season, and now they can't even convince kids who grew up cheering for MSU and go to an MSU-friendly high school to commit to them. MSU may be able to salvage Aaron Burbridge - but it's unbelievable that Hoke has already pulled Michigan even. This is a kid that should've been committed to State months ago, and now Michigan has a real shot of stealing him away. Hoke has beaten Dantonio heads up in every single recruiting battle to date, and the future looks bleak too.

As for those who say Hoke is a terrible coach and was Michigan's Plan D or E or whatever (and even cite other Michigan people who wanted nothing to do with him): don't pretend to know how Michigan's coaching search went down. Even the vast majority of Michigan fans aren't sure what exactly happened. The general consensus is that Dave Brandon had a wink and nod agreement with Jim Harbaugh, and that it fell apart at the last minute when Harbaugh's NFL stock went nuclear. After that, no one knows for sure. There's a line of thinking that Les Miles was genuinely pursued, and politely declined, and then Michigan moved on to Hoke (making him a Plan C at the worst). There's another that says Miles was "pursued" only to placate the Miles faction that spent the last three years pouting and raving that they were ignored in 2007. This line of thinking points back to Brandon allegedly saying he would never hire Miles (everyone knows about the skeletons in his closet), and that he never offered Miles the job and was focused in on Hoke immediately after the Harbaugh agreement fell through. If that's the case, then that's not a bad Plan B. Brian at MGoBlog was famously opposed to Hoke's candidacy in 2007, and there remains a certain segment of the UM fanbase that believes Hoke is a patsy and Lloyd is really Emperor Palpatine, pulling the strings behind the scenes.

The fact is, Dantonio never did anything as a head coach prior to arriving at MSU that was more impressive than what Hoke did as a head coach prior to arriving at UM. Dantonio had success as a coordinator - on the staff of a proven cheater on a team that rode a felon and an ineligible athlete to a national title. As a head coach, Dantonio did nothing of merit at Cincinnati, and yet has proven himself to be a very dependable coach at State. Hoke also had success as an assistant, and he has a national championship ring on his finger too, from 1997. So he had an under .500 record at Ball State. Can you name a coach that had success at Ball State? Can you even tell me where Ball State is located? And yet he managed to win 12 games in his final season there in 2008, their first 10-win season since 1978. They scored the most points in school history that year, with 489. The second most was 2007, also coached by Hoke, with 409. After that, in third place? 377, in 1977. At San Diego State, Hoke took over a program that was 4-7, 5-7, 3-9, 4-8, and 2-10 in the five years prior to his arrival. Two years later, they were 9-4, losing four games by a combined 15 points, being the only team to stay within striking distance of TCU (until the Rose Bowl), and winning the Poinsettia Bowl by three touchdowns. No evidence exists to suggest Hoke is any worse of a coach than Dantonio was prior to taking over MSU's program. Using the aversion many Michigan fans had to him as proof he's a lousy coach is amusing, but useless.

Throw out all the excuses you want. "MSU's depth is scaring recruits away." "Some of these kids are too small." "Some of these kids are lifelong Michigan fans." "Hoke is selling a dream." "There will be mass decommits when we kill UM on the field this year."

Thank you, Rationalization Man. You have saved the village.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

The Battle of Michigan: 2011 and 2012

Part 4 and a continuation from the summer. Part 1: The Numbers. Part 2: The War of Perception. Part 3: The PSL.

In the almost six months since I finished Part 3 of the "Battle of Michigan" series, highlighting the ongoing battle between Michigan and Michigan State for the state's top high school prospects, much has changed. Both schools were burned by the loss of high level prospects previously thought to be near locks, and of course Michigan went through the change from Rich Rodriguez to Brady Hoke, a transition that is still causing ripples.

In Part 1, published on July 28th of last year, the 2011 instate battle looked as such:

And now we arrive at the present. Both coaches are coming off underwhelming, disappointing 2009 seasons on the field, and one of the two has some warmth under his seat. But at the same time, both are also becoming more entrenched in the state and building relationships with the coaches within the mitten.

Both UM and MSU have, at this moment, offered the following prospects this cycle:

1. LB Lawrence Thomas, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
2. WR DeAnthony Arnett, Saginaw
3. OL/DE Anthony Zettel, West Branch Ogemaw Heights
4. CB Valdez Showers, Madison Heights Madison
5. DE/LB Brennen Beyer, Canton Plymouth (Michigan)
6. RB Justice Hayes, Grand Blanc
7. OL Jake Fisher, Traverse City West (Michigan)
8. LB Ed Davis, Detroit Southeastern

Eight offers apiece at the end of July is abnormally high, indicating a deep year in-state. The early scoreboard reads Michigan 2, Michigan State 1, and it will of course be much different as time passes. If I had to guess today, I'd say Arnett goes out of state, Zettel goes to Michigan, Showers goes out of state, Hayes goes to Notre Dame, and Davis goes to MSU. Those are 100% guesses though, no inside info.

Furthermore, Michigan offered these kids, but MSU didn't:

1. CB Delonte Hollowell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
2. WR Shawn Conway, Birmingham Seaholm (Michigan)

Until the class is wrapped up and everyone is signed, this number is purely cosmetic, but at the moment, Michigan's 2011 in-state recruiting is at 40% (4 for 10).

On the other side, here are MSU's offers this year with no UM offer:

1. RB Onaje Miller, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
2. WR Jake Duzey, Troy Athens (Iowa)
3. LB/S Taiwan Jones, New Baltimore Anchor Bay (Michigan State)

Again, it's early, but MSU's percentage this year is 27.3% (3 for 11). This number in particular will most likely change wildly if history is any indicator, as MSU will probably extend several more in-state offers before the class is finished.

Since then, Michigan landed Justice Hayes, MSU landed Ed Davis, and both schools lost Anthony Zettel, DeAnthony Arnett, Valdez Showers, and Jake Fisher.

Here is the revised list of prospects that both UM and MSU offered in the 2011 recruiting cycle:
  1. DE/LB Lawrence Thomas, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  2. WR DeAnthony Arnett, Saginaw (Tennessee)
  3. OG/DE Anthony Zettel, West Branch Ogemaw Heights (Penn State)
  4. DE Brennen Beyer, Plymouth Canton (Michigan)
  5. CB Valdez Showers, Madison Heights Madison (Florida)
  6. RB Justice Hayes, Grand Blanc (Michigan)
  7. OT Jake Fisher, Traverse City West (Oregon)
  8. LB Ed Davis, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
In a bizarre twist, neither school offered the same instate prospect after the summer. These are the same eight players from July. The final head-to-head scoreboard for 2011 reads MSU 2, Michigan 2, with four going out of state. Zettel and Arnett were particularly damaging to UM and MSU, respectively. Zettel was a heavy lean to Michigan throughout the entire process, but had whispers in his ear that dissuaded any sort of early commitment, and when it became clear that Rich Rodriguez was a dead man walking, those whispers finally swayed him, and he committed to Penn State. Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison made a late charge, but Zettel stuck with his commitment to PSU. Arnett, on the other hand, favored MSU throughout most of the process, and as it turns out, MSU's coaches treated him as such, and ultimately dropped the ball. They took him for granted, and he slipped right through their fingers. After that, the numbers are a wash compared to the summer; Fisher dropped UM for Oregon, and Hayes was turned from Notre Dame.

Meanwhile, these are the final numbers for Michigan on 2011 instate; kids that UM offered but MSU did not. Shawn Conway is omitted because he is a non-qualifier.
  1. CB Delonte Hollowell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. LB Desmond Morgan, Holland West Ottawa (Michigan)
  3. CB Raymon Taylor, Highland Park (Michigan)
  4. RB Thomas Rawls, Flint Northern (Michigan)
These numbers combined with the ones above give Michigan a final 2011 instate recruiting percentage of 50% (6 of 12).

Conversely, here are MSU's signees instate who were not offered by Michigan:
  1. RB Onaje Miller, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
  2. TE Jake Duzey, Troy Athens (Iowa)
  3. LB Taiwan Jones, New Baltimore Anchor Bay (Michigan State)
  4. DE Damon Knox, Muskegon (Michigan State)
That puts MSU's final tally for 2011 at 41.7% (5 of 12). Michigan's percentage bumped up from 40% in July to 50% in the end, while MSU's percentage went up from 27.3 to 41.7.

The final tally during Rich Rodriguez's ill-fated tenure in Ann Arbor, straight up, head to head with Mark Dantonio: Michigan 11, Michigan State 10. The 11 for Michigan:
  1. Boubacar Cissoko
  2. Mike Martin
  3. Kenny Demens
  4. Rocko Khoury
  5. William Campbell
  6. Cameron Gordon
  7. Thomas Gordon
  8. Devin Gardner
  9. Austin White
  10. Brennen Beyer
  11. Justice Hayes
And the 10 for MSU:
  1. Fred Smith
  2. Tyler Hoover
  3. Edwin Baker
  4. Chris Norman
  5. Larry Caper
  6. Dion Sims
  7. William Gholston
  8. Mylan Hicks
  9. Lawrence Thomas
  10. Ed Davis
Factoring in the complete 2011 class now, in the last four classes, Michigan offered 40 prospects in the state of Michigan, landing 18 of the 40 (45%). Over the same time period, MSU offered 74 and landed 39 (52.7%).

So...that book is now closed. The "outsider" Rodriguez is gone, and the perception that he neglected the state of Michigan during his time here will live on in the minds of the people who want it to live on. Unfortunately, as is often the case, perception is often reality, facts be damned.

====================================================================

So now...here we sit, in early February 2011. Both UM and MSU have closed the door on the 2011 class and are in the process of diving head first into the 2012 class, especially in Michigan, where the overall talent level is probably the highest it's been since the loaded 2007 class. The last couple days in particular have seen a frenzy of offers going out instate from both sides, as Dantonio continues his mandate of making the state of Michigan #1 and Brady Hoke works to rebuild what Rich Rodriguez allegedly tore down.

Neither team has any commitments yet, but the list of prospects both schools have offered and are pursuing is impressive:
  1. LB James Ross, Orchard Lake St. Mary's
  2. WR Aaron Burbridge, Farmington Hills Harrison
  3. LB Royce Jenkins-Stone, Detroit Cass Tech
  4. CB Terry Richardson, Detroit Cass Tech
  5. DE Mario Ojemudia, Farmington Hills Harrison
In addition, Michigan has offered these prospects, but not MSU...:
  1. DT Dan O'Brien, Flint Powers
  2. TE Devin Funchess, Farmington Hills Harrison
  3. WR/TE Ron Thompson, Eastpointe East Detroit
...while MSU - but not UM - has offered the following:
  1. WR Dennis Norfleet, Detroit Martin Luther King
  2. OL Kelby Latta, Battle Creek Harper Creek
  3. DL Matt Godin, Novi Detroit Catholic Central
  4. DT Jabari Dean, Detroit Renaissance
  5. S Riley Bullough, Traverse City St. Francis
10 offers from MSU and 8 from UM - 13 prospects total - is a very, very large number so early in the process. It's a sure bet that both schools were certainly offer at least some of the kids the other side already has. And that's not even factoring in kids that neither have offered yet but are still evaluating and waiting to see in camp during the spring and summer.

It will be a very competitive year instate once again, and the battle lines are already being drawn. The general consensus among the "experts" and fans is that the top three are (in any order, really) Ross, O'Brien, and Burbridge. Cass Tech remains very friendly to Michigan, giving UM an inside edge on Jenkins-Stone and Richardson - and by extension James Ross at OLSM, who is close with the CT duo. Farmington Hills Harrison is still Spartan territory, and MSU has to be considered the favorite for Burbridge and Ojemudia (and Funchess if/when they offer). Bullough is quite obviously an MSU lock with his brother there and all the other connections, while Thompson grew up a big Michigan fan. O'Brien also grew up in a UM family and looks up to Mike Martin, but Michigan has some bridges to repair in the wake of the coaching change.

It's too early to make any sort of reasonable predictions about where these kids end up, how the numbers shake out, who wins the battle in 2012, but one thing is certain: the war of perception is over. Brady Hoke has already gotten back into the good graces of many high school coaches in the state of Michigan who were turned off or felt disrespected by Rich Rodriguez. You can argue the fairness of that until you're blue (or green) in the face, but the fact is, the outsider perception is that a "Michigan Man" is back in charge of Michigan, and the prestige and respect that that moniker entails is going to pay dividends, sooner or later.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

The Battle of Michigan: The PSL

The final part of a three-part series. Part 1: The Numbers. Part 2: The War of Perception.



Sorry this is so late, I got sidetracked with real life, and then other Michigan-related happenings gave me pause as I considered shelving this for the timebeing and putting a different piece out, but that will come closer to the start of the season.

Also, much of what is said here will be rehashed and won't be new if you've been paying attention. Some people still aren't grasping the message though, so rehashing is sometimes necessary.

And, as I mentioned in Part 2, this is where I delve into the editorializing. Spartan fans, proceed with caution.

The trendy axiom in Michigan high school football goes something like, "The great teams play on the west side. The great players play on the east side." Meaning that teams like Muskegon, East Grand Rapids, Rockford and Lowell, while rarely having the elite prospects that draw attention from major colleges (players like Ronald Johnson, Terrance Taylor, and the Gradys being exceptions), the sum of their parts is greater than the teams on the east side of the state, where college recruiters routinely visit to scout the talent in the Catholic League and the Detroit Public Schools League. This is illustrated specifically by Inkster the last two years. The last two seasons, Inkster - currently an independent located just outside Detroit - has sent two elite prospects to the college ranks (Cameron Gordon and Devin Gardner) while also featuring an assortment of MAC-level talent. In terms of sheer talent, Inkster was clearly one of the best teams in the state in each of the past two years, evidenced by their 21-6 record. The catch? Two of those six losses came in the two state championship games they went to - 43-24 against East Grand Rapids in 2008 and 27-6 against Lowell last year. Neither game was particularly competitive, and yet neither EGR nor Lowell had a superstar on their roster that attracted the attention of either Michigan or Michigan State, while both schools vigorously pursued Gordon and Gardner from Inkster.

The point? For college coaches looking to pluck talent in the state of Michigan, the east side is where it's at. The debate about how much emphasis must be put on the in-state talent has been argued ad nauseum among Michigan fans since Rich Rodriguez arrived - even if the numbers show that nothing has changed on our end. Nobody's going to argue that the talent in this state is on level with California, Texas, Florida, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, etc. But at the same time, nobody will argue that each year, the mitten is good for producing one or two cream of the crop super-elite prospects that everyone in the country will want, along with a handful of very sturdy prospects who absolutely have a place on a BCS team's roster. At the heart of this is the Detroit Public Schools League, or PSL. In this league are teams many of us are familiar with, like Cass Tech, Southeastern, and Renaissance. Those three schools have been the focus of the major high-end talent in recent years, along with some particularly colorful situations (therein lies the rehashing ahead). Other schools include Crockett Tech (Brandon Graham's alma mater) and Martin Luther King High (Nick Perry). In regards to the in-state debate, my personal opinion: Ultimately it doesn't mean a thing where you get the kids from, you simply get the best players you can get...but, unless you're trying to build a powerhouse in Montana or the Dakotas or Rhode Island somewhere, you still need to protect your own backyard, and that's something, to an extent, and for very different reasons, both Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez failed to do.

The 2007 Rivals.com rankings for the state of Michigan are horrifying to look at:
  1. Ronald Johnson, 5* WR, Muskegon - USC
  2. Dionte Allen, 4* CB, Orchard Lake St. Mary's - Florida State
  3. Joseph Barksdale, 4* DT, Detroit Cass Tech - LSU
  4. Keith Nichol, 4* QB, Lowell - Oklahoma
  5. Darris Sawtelle, 4* OL, Birmingham Brother Rice - Tennessee
  6. Chris Colasanti, 4* LB, Birmingham Brother Rice - Penn State
  7. Mark Dell, 4* WR, Farmington Hills Harrison - Michigan State
  8. Cedric Everson, 4* ATH, Detroit Denby - Iowa
  9. Steven Threet, 4* QB, Adrian - Georgia Tech
  10. Ryan Van Bergen, 4* DE, Whitehall - Michigan
  11. Taurian Washington, 4* WR, Orchard Lake St. Mary's - Ohio State
  12. Martell Webb, 4* WR/TE, Pontiac Northern - Michigan
The passage of time has given some leeway into the epic fail the above represents: Allen and Washington have been major disappointments, Sawtelle quit football, Colsanti is just now getting on the field, Dell has been average at best, Everson was arrested, Nichol is now a Michigan State wide receiver (and wasn't recruited out of high school by Michigan), and there were some...special circumstances with Rojo and Barksdale. But the fact remains, Michigan offered the majority of these 12 kids when they were in high school (8 of 12), and landed only two of them. This shows the beginning of a slow erosion of in-state relationships between Michigan's coaching staff and high school coaches throughout the state - an erosion that was kicked into overdrive when Lloyd Carr exited and Rich Rodriguez entered.

Let's defeat one notion flat out right off the bat: Rich Rodriguez does not ignore or neglect the city of Detroit, the PSL, or the state of Michigan. There is a myth going around that players like William Gholston and Lawrence Thomas would've come to Michigan in the past had Rich Rodriguez not come in and destroyed everything that had been established. This is inherently false, and I honestly can't believe these lies have generally been accepted. Price of living in an age where the media isn't interested in actual facts anymore, I suppose.

So, let's play Mythbusters. Let's pull back the curtain on some of what's gone on in the past three years. Oh, and a disclaimer to some who selectively live in a black and white world: If you're going to doubt or dismiss what I say here because I don't "provide links" as evidence, so be it. In that same vein, I could provide you with links that show how Rich Rodriguez is a renegade coach trampling the practice rules set forth by the NCAA. Point is, just because something is written by a "respected" journalist through a "respectable" news outlet doesn't mean it's true, just as something is not automatically false if it's not written about in a newspaper. If you don't believe what I have to say because it's not "supported" by the Detroit Free Press or the Detroit News or whatever, fine. If you've listened to Sam Webb on the radio long enough and read the words of people who have proven to be reliable in the past enough, you'll know I'm not just making this up as part of some elaborate fantasy. I am piecing together the words of people I trust. It's your perogative to doubt or question the validity. But don't fill up my comment section with nonsense about how I shouldn't be saying things without proof. I've received all the backing I need behind closed doors.

So, without further adieu, I just rehash what has happened at two particular schools in Detroit over the past three years or so. I repeat, rehash. I have discussed all of this in the past, so if it's not new to you, feel free to skim.

Renaissance High School (Chris Norman, Lawrence Thomas, Antonio Watts)

1. Chris Norman. The situation at Renaissance is more a case of some people being stupid and some people seizing the opportunity than a case of people being sinister. Chris Norman was, for the most part, a casualty of the coaching transition at Michigan. While Rich Rodriguez was scrambling to keep together the class that Lloyd Carr had assembled in addition to spending six weeks pursuing kids in the current class (Michael Shaw, Terrelle Pryor, Roy Roundtree, etc), other schools - MSU included - were starting to move on to the next class, and MSU closed ranks on Norman quickly. He would've been at the top of Michigan's board for the 2009 class, being a highly regarded player at a position of need. So while it definitely hurts that he's not at Michigan, for the most part, nobody in Michigan circles goes crazy about this one.

2. Lawrence Thomas. This one is slightly more annoying, as Thomas is another freakishly freaky freak of a recruit in Michigan's backyard who claimed to be a fan of Michigan as a kid but won't be playing for Michigan in college. I don't regard him as a positional loss, because like Gholston, he's going to be way too big to play linebacker. 6'4, 240 pounds before his senior year of high school? This kid's not going to be playing MIKE linebacker in college, he's going to be a defensive end. And his commitment to State is a direct result of Chris Norman (and to a lesser extent, Mylan Hicks and Dana Dixon). Thomas regards Norman as his best friend, to the point where he calls him a "big brother."

3. Antonio Watts. This is where things at Renaissance get cast in a negative light. The video of Ren's head coach, Antonio Watts, bashing Michigan for treating his former players (Carson Butler and Andre Criswell) unfairly has been well circulated at this point. I was informed on the message board at MGoBlog a couple months ago that the link to the video that I have posted a couple times here in the past was setting off all sort of virus alarms, so I removed the links and won't be linking it here. If a brave soul wants to scavenge and find the link to check and see if it's still troublesome, best of luck.

Anyway, Watts acting like a fool and blaming Michigan/Rich Rodriguez for Carson Butler being a thug and Andre Criswell not being talented enough to get on the field has a lot of Michigan fans questioning if Michigan ever got a fair shake with Norman, Hicks and Thomas. Personally, I don't think he was much of a factor. Now, is it possible that as UM made the switch to Rodriguez, Watts got in Chris Norman's ear and told him he'd be much better off at Michigan State? Sure, I guess. But I've never heard anything like that from any source - including the source who mentioned that Thomas was not swayed by his coach's feelings about Michigan; he's going to State because of Norman and because of the gigantic turd Michigan's put on the field the last two days. Combine that with the fact that the main contact at Renaissance when it comes to recruiting is assistant coach Antoine Edwards and not Watts, I tend to just tip my cap to MSU for establishing a sturdy pipeline.

On the other hand...

Southeastern High School (Fred Smith, William Gholston, Johnathan Hankins, Archie Collins)

1. Fred Smith. Fred Smith's senior year at Southeastern High School was 2007-2008. This was the time period in which Mark Dantonio was just arriving at Michigan State and trying to establish an identity, and Lloyd Carr's career at Michigan was winding to a close and was just coming off an 11-2 2006 season. As the 2006/2007 recruiting cycle wound to a close and the 2007/2008 cycle shifted into the primary position, it was already clear that the in-state dynamics were changing. Dantonio arrived at MSU in late November of 2006, and in the few short months before signing day in February of 2007, he made very serious pushes at two of the state's top prospects - Ronald Johnson and Joseph Barksdale. Both of them went out of state in the end, but it was immediately clear that Dantonio was bringing a renewed focus on the state of Michigan - a focus that was almost completely destroyed under John L. Smith. So as the recruiting class of 2008 came into the spotlight, the renewed MSU focus came with it.

Michigan rode the momentum of an 11-2 Rose Bowl season into early commitments from two of the state's best prospects (Boubacar Cissoko and Dann O'Neill), but after that, the battles began, with one coming to the forefront - Southeastern wide receiver Fred Smith. A 4-star player ranked in the top 200 on Rivals, Smith grew up a Michigan fan in a family of Michigan fans. In normal situations, this would be a slamdunk. Both UM and MSU offered Smith, and his recruitment quickly narrowed down to the two in-state schools, with a summer decision on the horizon. On Thursday, August 2nd, 2007, MSU's Rivals site put out a final article on Smith in which they predicted that Smith's commitment at the end of the weekend would be for Michigan.

Three days later, Smith committed to Michigan State instead of Michigan. As it turns out, in the three days between that final article and the commitment at Southeastern High School, Smith had been out of contact, to the point where not even his family could find out where he was. Someone had managed to whisk him away during the weekend and take him to East Lansing for a special meeting with Mark Dantonio and Tom Izzo, during which Dantonio sold him on the idea of being the face of MSU's return to prominence, with a completely hollow assist from Izzo, who told him he could play basketball for the Spartans too.

In the two years he's been at Michigan State, Fred Smith has one catch, one arrest, one position move to fullback, and exactly zero seconds spent in a Michigan State basketball uniform.

2. William Gholston. Around the same time Dantonio was arriving at Michigan State, one of the state's most freakish of underclassmen was conveniently in the process of transferring from Mumford High School (also in Detroit) to Southeastern. Quite the coincidence I'm sure, but nevertheless, William Gholston was #1 on Mark Dantonio's wishlist from the moment he set foot in East Lansing, and a curious set of circumstances made sure that the feeling was mutual.

From the time before Gholston's junior year at Southeastern in the summer of 2008 and the time he committed to Michigan State in summer 2009, he visited Michigan around 2-3 times. He visited for Michigan's basketball game against Duke in December 2008. He made an impromptu visit to Michigan for a practice in March 2009, and made a quick visit on the day of Michigan's Spring Game in April 2009 - though he didn't stay for the actual game because of a basketball practice...

During this same time period, he made over a dozen visits to Michigan State, either for games in the fall, unofficial visits in the winter, or camps/practices in the spring before ultimately committing to MSU in June of last year. All throughout the process, and after he committed to MSU, he cited his desire to play linebacker in college.

You'll understand why I, along with many others, found this amusing yesterday:
EAST LANSING -- Top Michigan State freshman recruit William Gholston has decided he wants to play only defensive end, and has been granted his wish by coach Mark Dantonio.

"That was his decision," Dantonio said. "If he made that move I wanted it to be his decision. We never planted a seed. I think as he continued to rush the passer he saw himself as a guy that could help a little more in that area."

Putting aside Dantonio's bizarre need to mention that the MSU coaches never planted a seed and let Gholston make the decision himself (guilty conscience?)...the entire situation is laughable. Everybody knew that Gholston's future in college would be on the defensive line. The kid was 6'6/6'7, 250 pounds as a high school senior. You're not going to play linebacker in college when you're that big in high school, and any college coach that told Gholston otherwise flat out lied to him.

Another curious note: Every time Gholston visited Michigan (yes, all three times), it was a brief, abbreviated visit with only token tours of the weight room and other superficial things taking place. He was never able to sit down one-on-one with any coach on Michigan's staff, never had any in-depth conversations with anyone at UM, and was always gone after a short period of time. Why? Because someone was always serving as his chaperone, making sure things went a certain way, preventing certain people from getting too close...

3. Johnathan Hankins. This kid remains a touchy subject, actually. He came up again yesterday on the premium message boards at Rivals and Scout, with some angry Michigan fans blaming Rich Rodriguez for losing Hankins (in light of the news of Hankins being a disruptive force for Ohio State in fall camp). I couldn't help but shake my head at the stunning naivete because these select people a) don't understand how things work, and b) don't have even the slightest clue as to what happened with Hankins behind the scenes.

So, once again, and read this slowly if you don't understand yet: Michigan did nothing wrong in their recruitment of Johnathan Hankins. NOTHING.

The notion that UM lost Hankins by offering him late is asinine, and the people who continue to promote it are either mind-numbingly stupid or peddling their own agenda. Either way, they need to wise up. Rich Rodriguez and UM did NOTHING out of the ordinary with their approach to Hankins last summer. They asked him to show up to camp and earn the scholarship offer that he wanted so badly. When he failed to do so (he showed up to UM's camp with a bum ankle significant conditioning issues - he bailed from the practice field because he couldn't finish the drills for god's sake), UM told him they would keep in touch with him and check his senior film. And yet some people (MICHIGAN fans!) have an issue with this for some reason? Some people really think Rodriguez should've offered a kid who couldn't even finish the drills they asked him to do, the drills he KNEW he was going to have to do in order to get an offer.

But above all else, some people fail to see that even if UM had offered Hankins and he had committed during the summer, it would've all been moot. Michigan was not going to be the school for Hankins ever. It was pre-determined because of the high school he attended. In late November, after the season had ended, Michigan reviewed Hankins' senior tape as they had said they would, and they liked what they saw. They saw the explosion and disruptive force in the middle that they had expected to see at their camp in the summer. So they offered. And immediately, a visit was set up for the first weekend in December. During this visit, Michigan's coaches put to rest any issues Hankins and his family had with UM's later-than-expected offer. They tried to nudge Hankins toward canceling his Ohio State visit scheduled for the next weekend, but failed to do so. Even then, after Hankins' OSU visit, the "insiders" - people I trust implicitly - said that while it was close, the feeling was that the recruitment was trending in Michigan's direction. It was around this time that, out of nowhere, Alabama appeared on the radar as another possible visit destination for Hankins. Then, around Christmas time, rumors hit the internet about William Gholston suddenly waffling on his Michigan State commitment and now being bound for Tuscaloosa as well. Once that rumor was effectively squashed, Hankins was never mentioned in connection with Alabama again, and shortly after the new year, he committed to Ohio State at Southeastern High.

So what happened? Even with the word from insiders that his recruitment was trending in UM's direction and the news that UM had effectively dealt with any issues the Hankins family had with offering late, is it possible that the late offer had indeed soured Hankins on Michigan, driving him to Ohio State? That's certainly an effective cover story, and one that would satisfy a lot of people - a lot of people who would also be unaware of the man behind the curtain at Southeastern High School.

4. Archie Collins

That character - positioned squarely in front of Will Gholston at last year's Under Armour All-American Game - is the aforementioned man behind the curtain at Southeastern High School, one Archie Collins, former defensive coordinator. He played safety for Michigan State in the late 1990s under Head Coach Nick Saban and Defensive Backs Coach Mark Dantonio. He is the man who whisked Fred Smith away to East Lansing and helped turn him. He's the man who served as Will Gholston's guardian (literally, the kid lived with him) and ran interference during all of Gholston's visits to Michigan while also escorting him to MSU over a dozen times. He's the one who stepped in when it appeared that John Hankins was headed to Michigan. He planted Alabama in Hankins' mind (Saban connection), and I'm sure it was a coincidence that Alabama fell off the radar when the Gholston-to-Bama rumor flared up. And when the rubber met the road for Hankins, when it boiled down to decision time, when Michigan scheduled one final in-home visit with the family, it was Mr. Collins who stepped in and convinced both the kid and his family that Michigan was toying with Hankins and didn't really want him, and if they did, they would've offered him long before they did.

The end results: Fred Smith commits to Michigan State, causing his pro-Michigan brother to leave the press conference in tears. William Gholston commits to Michigan State and accuses Michigan of dropping the ball in his recruitment. Johnathan Hankins commits to Ohio State and says Michigan offered him too late.

Oh, and today, as the rest of the Southeastern coaching staff looks for work after being the latest casualities in the mess that is Detroit Public Schools, Archie Collins now serves as the distinguished video intern at Jenison Fieldhouse in East Lansing, a de jure employee of the school of which he served as de facto recruiter for three years. All just a coincidence, I'm sure.

Now, to the naysayers:

1. When Sam Webb openly discussed the Southeastern situation on the radio a month or two back, a Michigan State....individual called in and said something to the effect of, "Oh, so when Michigan recruits to the end with Roy Roundtree, it's okay, but when Michigan State recruits to the end with Fred Smith, something dirty has to be going on?" Well, if you can't see the difference here, I don't know what to say. One situation has a school that had previously shown no interest (Michigan) in a prospect (Roundtree) and offering him a much better place than his previous school (Purdue). Were there stories of Trotwood Madison's coach stuffing Roundtree into the back seat of his car and driving him to Michigan? Any whispers whatsoever of his high school coach strong-arming him to Michigan over Purdue? No. None.

2. This is not a byproduct of 8-16 and all the negativity surrounding Rich Rodriguez. Has that made things easier? I'm sure it has. But Fred Smith was turned on the heels of Michigan going 11-2 and being a preseason top 5 team. The issue here existed before Rodriguez was a twinkle in Bill Martin's eye.

3. The Cass Tech comparisons are null and void. MSU fans often try to rationalize the situation at Southeastern by saying "Wilcher does the same thing at Cass Tech." Well...you might have a point. In a parallel universe where Vernon Gholston is a Michigan grad, Joseph Barksdale is entering his 4th year as a starter at Michigan, and Dior Mathis is contending for playing at at Michigan. It's a pretty safe bet that Cass Tech's head coach, U-M grad and former player Thomas Wilcher, puts in a good word for Michigan when discussing recruiting with his prospects. But Vernon Gholston and Joseph Barksdale both had Michigan offers and went elsewhere. Thomas Gordon would've gone to Michigan State if Michigan had not offered. Dior Mathis had Michigan State at the top with Oregon for months, and he picked the Ducks. Wilcher has never run interference against MSU with any of his players. Dior could've gone to MSU if he wanted. Same with Gordon and Cissoko and Campbell. When you find something substantial, like a Cass Tech kid being out of contact with his family and then suddenly committing to Michigan instead of the presumed favorite MSU, or a Cass Tech kid without a Michigan offer being driven away from Michigan State, or anything even remotely close to what I've described above at Southeastern, let me know.

What's the point? You claim ownership over the city of Detroit and the state of Michigan while simultaneously claiming that Rich Rodriguez doesn't care about the kids here and recruits Florida harder. You can't "own" something if you're not competing with someone for something, can you? And you can't "own" something when the playing field is tilted so ridiculously in your favor like it was at a certain high school. At the end of the day, all that matters in recruiting is getting the players, and in a couple particular cases, you succeeded at that where we failed. So kudos.

Meanwhile, the clock is still ticking. What I said 13 months ago still applies. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Monday, August 2, 2010

The Battle of Michigan: The War of Perception

Part 2 of a multi-part series: Part 1: The Numbers.


First, a preface: Brian, in mentioning Part 1 of this series last week, seemed to imply that the very act of debating this is in essence conceding the debate itself, and that MSU's recruiting is the same mediocre product it's always been and Michigan fans shouldn't waste time analyzing it. I agree in part (and that's actually part of what I'm planning on discussing as this series thingie moves forward), but I also disagree at the same time. Michigan fans can bemoan the fact that we've fallen to the level where we're worried about State all they want; that doesn't change the reality that it's something that has gone from a blip on the radar to a tangible threat that cannot be ignored.

My opinion, anyway.


So. In Part 1, I did my best to put aside any editorializing and bias, simply relying on hard numbers and facts. Part 3 will be the part where I veer into the territory of complete opinion (MSU fans will want to skip that one). This part will probably fall somewhere in the middle - there will be numerous facts, but I will also be injecting a pro-Michigan viewpoint, so be forewarned if you're not of the Maize and Blue persuasion.

Anyway, as the title says, there is a war of perception going on within our state's borders. It's been going on for over two years now, and frankly, Michigan's losing. To some people, it's an irrelevant battle for some very particular reasons. For others, it's something that they believe has changed and must be corrected.

The perception is, simply put, that Michigan, and specifically Rich Rodriguez, disrespects high school coaches and players in the state of Michigan by pursuing similar (or in their minds, inferior) prospects in other states. These feelings are amplified by the presence of Rodriguez, a complete outsider from the hills of West Virginia, in contrast to the past 40 years of Bo-Mo-Lloyd. Never mind that Lloyd was from the hills of Tennessee himself. But that's another argument for another day.

I have a feeling that certain people would've tried to kick start this line of thought even if Lloyd Carr had stayed as UM head coach or if Les Miles had been hired or something, because its roots reside in East Lansing and the arrival of one Mark Dantonio. I mentioned this in passing in Part 1, but one of the cornerstones of Dantonio's tenure in East Lansing is the re-dedication to bringing in the in-state kids, in making Michigan State THE university of Michigan.

A quick glance at recruiting, and you see man-beasts like William Gholston and Lawrence Thomas going to Michigan State, the historically inferior program in the state, and it's easy to assume that MSU has successfully shifted the balance of power in the mitten.

However, when the argument comes up that Rodriguez is neglecting/disrespecting/ignoring/whatever in-state kids, consider these numbers:

2002: Michigan 11, MSU 7
2003: Michigan 6, MSU 4
2004: Michigan 5, MSU 8
2005: Michigan 6, MSU 6
2006: Michigan 4, MSU 7
2007: Michigan 5, MSU 8
2008: Michigan 5, MSU 13
2009: Michigan 4, MSU 12
2010: Michigan 4, MSU 10
2011 (to date): Michigan 4, MSU 3

In case it isn't obvious, these are the numbers of in-state recruits each program has taken in the Rivals era.

Outside of the one outlying year (2002), Rich Rodriguez's recruiting in the state of Michigan is almost identical to Lloyd Carr's final years. The "change" is the aforementioned in-state blitz by Dantonio, which has somehow been spun into a negative UM light at the same time. A pretty impressive spin, I must admit.

As for Gholston and Thomas, the in-state supers who would generally be thought of as players well above Michigan State's payrate and would either go to Michigan or go out of state:

Player A:
Consensus prep All-American . . . named Parade Magazine and Rivalnet National Player of the Year . . . selected Defensive Player of the Year by PrepStar, SuperPrep and Rivalnet . . . ranked among the nation's top five players by nearly every recruiting publication, including No. 1 by Rivalnet, No. 2 by The National Recruiting Advisor, No. 2 by Tom Lemming's Prep Football Report and No. 5 by SuperPrep . . . rated the state's top prospect by the Detroit Free Press, The Detroit News and Lansing State Journal . . . the Midwest's top-ranked player recorded 102 tackles (63 solos, 39 assists), including nine sacks, and forced four fumbles in 1998 . . .


Player B:
Consensus prep All-American . . . rated the nation�s No. 1 prospect by ESPN.com recruiting analyst Tom Lemming . . . also ranked among the country�s top players by SuperPrep (No. 8) . . . listed among the nation�s top receivers by Lemming (No. 1), PrepStar (No. 2) and SuperPrep (No. 3) . . . labeled the No. 1 player in the Midwest by PrepStar, SuperPrep and the Detroit Free Press . . . named Midwest Region Offensive MVP by PrepStar . . . rated the state�s top player by the Detroit Free Press, The Detroit News and Lansing State Journal . . . three-time all-state selection . . .


Player C:
SuperPrep, PrepStar and Max Emfinger All-American . . . rated among the nation's top 20 quarterbacks by SuperPrep (No. 15), Student Sports Magazine (No. 15), TheInsiders.com (No. 17) and ESPN.com's Tom Lemming (No. 18) . . . also ranked among the country's top passing QBs (No. 7) by USA Today's Max Emfinger . . . listed among the Midwest's top prospects by the Detroit Free Press (No. 15) and SuperPrep (No. 17) . . . ranked among the state's top seniors by The Detroit News (No. 3), Lansing State Journal (No. 3) and Detroit Free Press (No. 6) . . . named to The Detroit News and Detroit Free Press Dream Teams . . .

You look at those profiles, those accolades...they sound like players who would snub their noses at State and take their skills to Michigan, don't they?

Player A is TJ Duckett. Player B is Charles Rogers. Player C is Drew Stanton.

All Mark Dantonio has done is restore what John L. Smith destroyed. MSU has always fared better in-state, and they have always landed their fair share of in-state stars who were always more enamored with MSU than UM. The only historical difference right now is Michigan being in the tank at 8-16 and being run by a perceived outsider who has rubbed a few people the wrong way.

2009 recruit Reid Fragel in 2008:
"To me, being a prospect from Michigan, it sort of feels like Michigan is being disrespectful toward the recruits in this state by going outside the state," Reid Fragel, a senior tight end from Grosse Pointe South High School who's committed to Ohio State, told The Columbus Dispatch. "I've heard some things saying they might be looking to the South more, while Michigan State is looking in-state. I think that's really benefiting (the Spartans), with their recruiting class this year especially."

So...why is Reid Fragel entering his second year with Ohio State and not Michigan State? If respect is such a big thing to him, why did he commit to an out-of-state program (OSU) over the in-state one that offered him a scholarship (MSU)? He "heard some things" about Michigan looking to the South? What things? From who?

MSU running back Edwin Baker, in the same Daily article:
"Michigan is not looking in-state," said Baker, rivals.com's No. 2 in-state prospect. "They want to go down South and get away from (Michigan), and that's going to pull all the talent toward Michigan State's way."

I'll discuss what exactly is "pulling" all the talent Michigan State's way in Part 3, but Baker's claim is just as false now as it was when he made it two years ago. Particuarly weird coming from him, since he was the one Rich Rodriguez wanted (not Larry Caper). Fragel's bitterness was at least partially understandable, as he wanted to play tight end in college (like he is with OSU), but Michigan liked him more as an offensive tackle.

Even Rodriguez antagonist Dave Birkett (inadvertently?) took a swing at the perception that Rodriguez doesn't care about recruiting in Michigan:
In three years under Rodriguez, Michigan has signed players from 14 different states. Typically, the Wolverines do most of their recruiting in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but they also have a successful Florida pipeline and have secured commitments from non-traditional states like Arizona, Louisiana and Massachusetts.

Emphasis mine.

This is what Rodriguez has said all along ever since he arrived. If somebody can find a link with a direct quote from RR himself, thanks, but I have heard him say numerous times he wants UM's recruiting base to be MI-OH-PA, and then going down to Florida and branching out nationally from there. He has never - not once - said anything disparaging about the talent in this state in comparison to others.

And it would be easy to. Do you think it's a coincidence that MSU's always cleaned up in the state and has historically been a second tier program? The two are linked. You can make a chicken and the egg argument, but the end result is the same. MSU relies on in-state talent because they are historically mediocre and can't recruit nationally, and they are historically mediocre because their recruiting classes are full of state of Michigan kids who simply aren't as good as kids in other states. The state of Michigan isn't even on the radar for top states in terms of high school talent. After the big three (Florida, Texas, California), people rattle off states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia. Michigan never comes up, because there is never enough depth in state to support a high level program on its own merits, let alone two.

So, you ask why Michigan doesn't offer and take a dozen in-state prospects every year? Simply put: It's because they don't strive to be Michigan State. Mark Dantonio doesn't have some bleeding heart sentimentality to the poor inner city Detroit kids who are dying for a way out. He's taking what he can get. If MSU had the clout and the ability to go into Virginia and snag a Curtis Grant (5-star linebacker this year), does anyone really believe he'd turn him away in favor of Detroit Southeastern linebacker Ed Davis, who, while a fine player in his own right, doesn't measure up to Grant? Good coaches want the best players, period. And contrary to the partisan lines that have been drawn, I do believe both Rodriguez and Dantonio are good coaches. They're very different in their methods and beliefs, but they're both good coaches and both have the ability to identify talent.

But the fact remains, even now, Michigan's national footprint is much larger than Michigan State's. Don't believe me? Do you think Michigan State has the ability to go into South Carolina and take a star lineman away from the in-state Gamecocks? Can MSU go into Arizona and grab a pair of 4-star level prospects with numerous Pac-10 offers? Can they grab a Florida kid with offers from Florida, Ohio State, USC and Georgia? If and when Michigan State reaches this level, a lot of people are going to be in for a surprise when it comes to who gets offered, where they're from, etc.

I give the Spartans credit. They've absolutely jumped on the opportunity that's been served up to them on a platter. First time in a generation that UM is down, and they're exploiting it to the fullest with the most fundamental of tactics - targeting the hearts and minds of the masses. The two sides have very, very different views of reality, but sometimes it's the perception that matters the most, and there's little doubt that MSU is winning the war of perception. Doesn't matter what the truth is, it's the fundamental definition of the Big Lie: no matter how outlandish and how false something is, if you repeat it enough and never deviate from your message, eventually people will believe it.

Like I mentioned at the onset of this one, Part 3 will be even more opinionated than this one. MSU folks will want to skip it. A large portion of it will actually be a rehash of a few sensitive issues I've talked about here before, but sometimes things have to be repeated just so the message gets across.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

The Battle of Michigan: The Numbers


Part 1 of a multi-part series.

Since Rich Rodriguez arrived in Ann Arbor 19+ months ago, one of the main focus points of his tenure, outside the actual football field, has been the emphasis, or perceived lack of emphasis, on in-state recruiting. The picture has been painted that Rodriguez is neglecting the pool of talent in the state of Michigan, a picture that has been enhanced and promoted by a united front in East Lansing. The irony is this was not born out of a desire to attack Michigan and Rodriguez, but it was the plan for Michigan State the moment Mark Dantonio arrived in East Lansing a full year before Rodriguez at Michigan. After the abomination that was the John L. Smith era at MSU, Dantonio was brought in to restore a sense of stability and toughness, starting with a renewed focus on the state of Michigan and a rebuilding of the relationships with in-state high school coaches that eroded under Smith. This became easier once Lloyd Carr retired and Rodriguez was hired. But this will be discussed more in depth later in this series. This part will be dedicated solely to the numbers and facts.

Of coure, being that this delves into the bizarre and erratic nature of football recruiting, even "facts" can be disputed at times. Offers aren't offers, recruitments are rarely black and white, and perception counts. Here, I will attempt to lay out the facts as I know them in an unbiased and objective manner. My own personal opinion will be expressed at a later time. To be frank, this isn't easy. This is a hotly contested issue between Michigan and Michigan State fans, and both sides have, in many cases, a completely different perception of how things have unfolded in the last two and a half years in our state's battleground. For example, many Michigan fans don't look at the 2008 recruiting class when looking at Rodriguez's recruiting acumen, as the majority of the class was put together by Lloyd Carr and company. For the sake of this analysis though, the 2008 class will be considered, and here's my logic: the on-field results (all the 3-9 ugliness) are absolutely considered when looking at how Rodriguez has performed as UM coach. If you hold that against him, then you must also consider the 2008 class when looking at his recruiting. It's uneven to dismiss the 2008 class as Carr's, but then not give Rodriguez the leeway of a mulligan on the field. So, point is, the 2008 class will be factored in here.

Another issue of contention is, who actually had a scholarship offer, and who was actually recruited to the end? Fans on both sides are conveniently selective on this matter. In a perfect world, all recruiting cases would be cut and dry like a Thomas Gordon, a Jake Fisher, a Lawrence Thomas, etc, where both schools clearly offered the prospect, clearly recruited the kid to the end, and clearly wanted him in the class before losing out to the other side. Unfortunately, things aren't that even. MSU fans trumpet kids like Larry Caper and Dion Sims as recruiting victories over Michigan. Michigan fans point to Cameron Gordon as a win over MSU. The reality is slightly different (Caper's Michigan offer was from Carr, Rodriguez never recruited him; Sims was recruited by UM as a defensive end and the two sides never spoke after the summer; Gordon had an MSU offer early on but was skittish on his position and MSU filled up at WR), but for the sake of clarity and fairness, when compiling the analysis here, an "offer" will be treated as an offer, period. The one exception I will make that I can think of off the top of my head is Onaje Miller, because I know for a fact that Michigan did not extend any sort of offer in his direction, verbal or otherwise. It wasn't a case of UM offering but not pursuing, or offering and cooling later on. They simply didn't offer, at any point, period.

Anyway...with all that said, let's begin.

In the 2008 recruiting cycle, Michigan AND Michigan State both offered the following in-state prospects:
  1. CB Boubacar Cissoko, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. DE Nick Perry, Detroit Martin Luther King (USC)
  3. RB Jonas Gray, Detroit Country Day (Notre Dame)
  4. WR Fred Smith, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
  5. DT Mike Martin, Novi Catholic Central (Michigan)
  6. LB Kenny Demens, Detroit Country Day (Michigan)
  7. DE Tyler Hoover, Novi (Michigan State)
  8. OL Rocko Khoury, Traverse City West (Michigan)
  9. OL DeOn'tae Pannell, Birmingham Groves (Penn State)
The score in battles that both schools offered: Michigan 4, Michigan State 2.

In addition, these prospects were offered by Michigan, but not by Michigan State:
  1. OL Dann O'Neill, Grand Haven (Michigan)
O'Neill was the only one, putting Michigan's in-state recruiting for 2008 at 50% (10 offers, 5 commits).

On the other side, Michigan State offered these prospects, but Michigan did not:
  1. RB Mark Ingram, Flint Southwestern (Alabama)
  2. DB Charles Burrell, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
  3. OL Ethan Ruhland, Lake Orion (Michigan State)
  4. WR Keshawn Martin, Westland John Glenn (Michigan State)
  5. RB Caulton Ray, Birmingham Brother Rice (Michigan State)
  6. OL Anthony Woods, Melvindale (Michigan State)
  7. OL Chris McDonald, Sterling Heights Utica Ford (Michigan State)
  8. RB Glenn Winston, Detroit Denby (Michigan State)
  9. DB Tim Dandridge, Detroit Highland Park (Minnesota)
  10. DB Trenton Robinson, Bay City Central (Michigan State)
  11. OL John Deyo, Richland Gull Lake (Michigan State)
  12. ATH Myles White, Livonia Stevenson (Michigan State)
  13. OL Zach Hueter, North Branch (Michigan State)
These numbers put MSU's 2008 in-state recruiting at 59.1% (22 offers, 13 commits).

=================================================================

Understandably, the above data is taken with a grain of salt due to the coaching change at Michigan and the understandably dubious link Rodriguez had with assembling the class. The 2009 class is more clear.

In the 2009 recruiting cycle, Michigan and Michigan State both offered the following prospects:
  1. DT William Campbell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. RB Edwin Baker, Oak Park (Michigan State)
  3. LB Chris Norman, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  4. WR James Jackson, Grand Ledge (Ohio State)
  5. WR Cameron Gordon, Inkster (Michigan)
  6. RB Larry Caper, Battle Creek Central (Michigan State)
  7. TE Dion Sims, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (Michigan State)
  8. DB Thomas Gordon, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
The score in battles where both schools offered: Michigan State 4, Michigan 3.

The overall score after analyzing both 2008 and 2009: Michigan 7, Michigan State 6.

**(Again, I understand there are extra circumstances surrounding Cam Gordon, Caper, and Sims. I'm erring on the side of caution.)

These prospects were offered by Michigan in 2009, but not Michigan State:
  1. RB Teric Jones, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
Again, only one. That puts Michigan's 2009 in-state recruiting at 44% (9 offers, 4 commits).

Here are the prospects offered by MSU in 2009, but not Michigan:
  1. TE Reid Fragel, Grosse Pointe South (Ohio State)
  2. DT Blake Treadwell, East Lansing (Michigan State)
  3. LB Jeremy Gainer, Livonia Clarenceville (Michigan State)
  4. QB Andrew Maxwell, Midland (Michigan State)
  5. TE DeMarkus Bracy, Flint Southwestern (Cincinnati)
  6. OL Zac Matthias, Hemlock (Wisconsin)
  7. WR Dana Dixon, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  8. WR Donald Spencer, Ypsilanti (Michigan State)
  9. K Kevin Muma, Troy (Michigan State)
  10. LB Will Schwarz, Troy (Central Michigan)
  11. OL Micajah Reynolds, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
  12. WR Bennie Fowler, Detroit Country Day (Michigan State)
That puts MSU's 2009 in-state recruiting at 60% (12 out of 20).

At this point, a trend can obviously be seen, with MSU offering 42 in-state players in 2008 and 2009, while Michigan only offered 19. This will be discussed later in the series.

===================================================================

As each year passes and both coaches establish themselves in-state, the data becomes more and more reliable. Let's look at 2010.

Both schools offered the following prospects last year (NOTE: Ricardo Miller is obviously omitted from all data here, as he was obviously a transplant from Florida):
  1. DE William Gholston, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
  2. QB Devin Gardner, Inkster (Michigan)
  3. QB Robert Bolden, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (Penn State)
  4. CB Dior Mathis, Detroit Cass Tech (Oregon)
  5. DE CJ Olaniyan, Warren Mott (Penn State)
  6. CB Mylan Hicks, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  7. RB Austin White, Livonia Stevenson (Michigan)
Much shorter list in this cycle. The score for 2010: Michigan 2, Michigan State 2.

And the 2008-2009-2010 score, head to head: Michigan 9, Michigan State 8.

To expand, Michigan offered these in-staters last year, while MSU did not:
  1. WR Jeremy Jackson, Ann Arbor Pioneer (Michigan)
  2. DT Johnathan Hankins, Detroit Southeastern (Ohio State)
That leaves Michigan's 2010 in-state recruiting at 33% (3 of 9).

Here are MSU's 2010 in-state offers Michigan didn't pursue:
  1. LB Max Bullough, Traverse City St. Francis (Michigan State)
  2. K/P Mike Sadler, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (Michigan State)
  3. LB Austin Gray, Warren Fitzgerald (Iowa)
  4. QB Joe Boisture, Saline (Michigan State)
  5. RB Nick Hill, Chelsea (Michigan State)
  6. DT Carl Davis, Sterling Heights Stevenson (Iowa)
  7. WR Tony Lippett, Detroit Crockett (Michigan State)
  8. RB Jeremy Langford, Westland John Glenn (Michigan State)
  9. DE Taylor Calero, Southfield Christian (Michigan State)
  10. OL Paul Jorgenson, Dewitt (Northwestern)
  11. WR Tony Jones, Grand Blanc (Northwestern)
  12. ATH Daniel Easterly, Detroit Cass Tech (Missouri)
  13. FB Niko Palazeti, Novi Catholic Central (Michigan State)
Again, a noticably wider net cast by the Spartans. Their 2010 numbers check in at 50% (20 offers, 10 commitments).

Also, I again acknowledge and understand some extenuating circumstances with a few of these kids like Gholston, Bolden, Mathis, Olaniyan. I can again go into these more indepth when I editorialize later in the series, but for now, again, an offer is an offer.

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And now we arrive at the present. Both coaches are coming off underwhelming, disappointing 2009 seasons on the field, and one of the two has some warmth under his seat. But at the same time, both are also becoming more entrenched in the state and building relationships with the coaches within the mitten.

Both UM and MSU have, at this moment, offered the following prospects this cycle:
  1. LB Lawrence Thomas, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  2. WR DeAnthony Arnett, Saginaw
  3. OL/DE Anthony Zettel, West Branch Ogemaw Heights
  4. CB Valdez Showers, Madison Heights Madison
  5. DE/LB Brennen Beyer, Canton Plymouth (Michigan)
  6. RB Justice Hayes, Grand Blanc
  7. OL Jake Fisher, Traverse City West (Michigan)
  8. LB Ed Davis, Detroit Southeastern
Eight offers apiece at the end of July is abnormally high, indicating a deep year in-state. The early scoreboard reads Michigan 2, Michigan State 1, and it will of course be much different as time passes. If I had to guess today, I'd say Arnett goes out of state, Zettel goes to Michigan, Showers goes out of state, Hayes goes to Notre Dame, and Davis goes to MSU. Those are 100% guesses though, no inside info.

Furthermore, Michigan offered these kids, but MSU didn't:
  1. CB Delonte Hollowell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. WR Shawn Conway, Birmingham Seaholm (Michigan)
Until the class is wrapped up and everyone is signed, this number is purely cosmetic, but at the moment, Michigan's 2011 in-state recruiting is at 40% (4 for 10).

On the other side, here are MSU's offers this year with no UM offer:
  1. RB Onaje Miller, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
  2. WR Jake Duzey, Troy Athens (Iowa)
  3. LB/S Taiwan Jones, New Baltimore Anchor Bay (Michigan State)
Again, it's early, but MSU's percentage this year is 27.3% (3 for 11). This number in particular will most likely change wildly if history is any indicator, as MSU will probably extend several more in-state offers before the class is finished.

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The summary?

Since 2008, the head to head scoreboard is Michigan 11, Michigan State 9.

Since 2008, Michigan has offered 38 in-state prospects, landing commitments from 16 of those 38 (42.1%).

MSU, on the other hand, has offered a staggering 73 players in-state. Of those 73, they've landed 38 (52.1%).

In the last four classes, both schools have offered 32 players. Of those 32, we must exclude the five from this year who haven't committed yet for the sake of the data. So, from those 27 over the past four classes who signed somewhere and were offered by both UM and MSU, Michigan landed 11 (40.7%), Michigan State landed 9 (33.3%), and 7 (25.9%) signed elsewhere.

What does all this mean, and how does it affect certain perceptions that exist? Well, there's for you to determine on your own. As for what I think, that'll be in Part 2.