Showing posts with label MSU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MSU. Show all posts

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Careful With That Axe, Dantonio

Found at Beemp3.com
Do you know why South Vietnam was never able to beat North Vietnam, even with the backing of the most powerful country in the world? It wasn't because the North had superior firepower; they didn't. It wasn't because the North had more men; they didn't. The North was decimated after the First Indochina War. Their two major allies - China and the Soviet Union - were reluctant at best to help them, while the United States, on the other hand, poured money in hand over fist to prop up the South. But it didn't matter. Why?

Because no matter how much support was given, the South Vietnamese leadership never controlled the hearts and minds of the people. South Vietnam on its own had more manpower and weaponry than the North did, even before factoring in the Americans. But South Vietnam was a rudderless ship with a captain whose best attribute was doling out cushy jobs to his cronies, whereas North Vietnam, impoverished and undermanned as it was, was led by a single, authoritative voice who won the souls of those he implored to follow him. Ho Chi Minh didn't need coercion or graft to convince his people to go to war for him; they were all too willing to do so anyway. Meanwhile, South Vietnam was beset by an insurgency that could never be stopped. They would plug one hole, and another would burst open. They could never get ahead of it, and they could never convince themselves that they were truly in control. Not when they could scarcely get through a single day without another government official being gunned down by Viet Cong snipers.

In this metaphor, Michigan was, for the longest time, South Vietnam, led astray by a man incapable of coping with the gravity of his position, and besieged by those in his midst who pretended to be his friends. Meanwhile, Michigan State played the role of North Vietnam; they never have and never will have the resources available to them like Michigan. Their recruiting classes never measure up to the ones Michigan rakes in, on paper. But in the years Michigan caved in on itself, Michigan State got their shit together and found a leader capable of rallying the masses. Dantoni-o Chi Minh, indeed. And under his guidance, MSU has grown to exceed the sum of its parts, turning 2-3 star nobodies into all-conference performers capable of toppling the menace to the south.

Where this metaphor collapses, then, is with Brady Hoke. There never was any suitable replacement for Ngo Dinh Diem in South Vietnam; once he was murdered in the back of a truck with his hands tied behind his back, there was no recourse for South Vietnam; no one to fill that void except the United States. For Michigan, Hoke is the savior that none of us expected but all of us dreamed for. Under Hoke, any so-called "insurgency" in Ann Arbor and the Metro Detroit area has been snuffed out. Ironically, this has ushered in the return of the East Lansing people who claim that the media in southeastern Michigan is, has always been, and always will be in the tank for all things maize and blue. It's a bit of cognitive dissonance I suppose, where both sides are paranoid and convinced that the media's out to get them.

But nevertheless, Dantoni-o Chi Minh has pulled off the feat none of us had ever seen before: beating the Michigan juggernaut four years in a row. His tenure at East Lansing has been a colorful one, to be sure. I remember several of my MSU friends, pining for Bo Pelini or Butch Davis, wondering "WHO?!" when Dantonio was named the guy. Since then we've seen mocking Dantonio - "moment of silence," "go Bucks" - progress into defiant Dantonio - "I found a lot of the things they do amusing," "they need to check themselves," "pride goes before the fall," "it'll never be over" - to victorious, arrogant Dantonio - "this one counts as more than one," "the little brother grows up," "winner takes all." More recently, however, Dantonio's cheery demeanor (...) has given way to a kind of petulance. His interruption of Michigan recruiting coordinator Jeff Hecklinski in front of a room of Michigan high school coaches in January was the type of thing you see from someone who has a ticking clock in his own mind but is never quite sure of when it will strike zero - or perhaps in his case, midnight. In April, petulant Dantonio took it another step, asking "where's the threat?" in regards to Michigan; as if it was somehow beneath him to talk about Michigan now after finding ways to do so every chance he got since arriving in 2007. In the course of beating Michigan for four years, Dantonio has become that which he famously derided after Michigan's win in 2007. The arrogance he accused Michigan of oozing now emanates from every pore he has. The dismissiveness he saw in Michigan he now sees when he looks in the mirror, even though he would never acknowledge it. If pride is to go before the fall, then what is it to be called when someone asks "where's the threat?"

Many MSU fans reject the notion, but the truth is that Michigan State, and their coach in particular, is incapable of coping with any sort of sustained success. Their football program is founded on a perpertual inferiority complex; everything they do, they measure against what goes on in Ann Arbor. Mike Hart's "Little Brother" comment was crass and unfiltered, but it was not untrue, and that was what drove MSU fans crazy about it. There was no audacity because he said something scandalous and false, they reacted with outrage because he illuminated a truth that MSU fans try to shy away from. Michigan State needs Michigan to lord over them, because it gives them something to aspire to. On the treadmill they run, and Michigan is the stick that dangles in front of them, prompting them to continue their quest for acceptance. To remove that stick would be to remove their motivation for being. It's never news when Michigan beats Michigan State four years in a row, because that's the way things are supposed to be; the status quo interests no one. It's when the established order is turned on its head that everyone loses their minds.


They tried to change this narrative as the Rodriguez era unfolded in Ann Arbor; they created what they wanted to be the new normal; a world where Michigan was relegated to a sideshow circus, lorded over by the uninspiring, workman-like efficiency of Michigan State. This was prominently displayed in Ann Arbor in 2010, when Michigan came in flashy, only to fizzle out as MSU gradually ground them down into dust. That game was the tipping point for the majority of Michigan fans who still clung to the notion that things could be different; I was among those fans. When the clock hit zero in 2010 and it was MSU 34, U-M 17, I knew that our hopes and dreams were just that; that our fearless leader who promised so much, who had drawn us in with the lure of change, and moving forward, was in reality in well over his head and doomed to fail. The Penn State game that followed a couple weeks later may have been the final straw, but in retrospect, it's plain to see that it was the Michigan State game that revealed that the emperor had no clothes.

Where then, is the road back to what Michigan fans consider "normal?" Well, it's a simple answer after all. Back to the future we are headed, where our head coach guards injury news and practice reports like state secrets and treats the media the way they deserve to be treated - as a fifth column whose only goal is to produce a "gotcha" moment. Denard is still here, but his time is fleeting, his presence waning, and with him, the "spread" will depart from Michigan, and the sometimes-derided "manball" will return. Even now it's trying to assert itself, because that's what it does. It knows no subtleties, no crafty sense of nuance. It knows only how to impose itself on everything it touches. And with that return to what is known but was forgotten is the inevitable demand, the ultimatum - the demand that the Spartans accept their place. Because the reality is that Schembechler, Moeller, Carr and Rodriguez all lost their first games against MSU just as Hoke did, and those first three all followed it up with a win in their second try. I ask you: does Brady Hoke remind you more of Bo, Mo, and Lloyd, or Rodriguez?

The axe of Paul Bunyan (not to be confused with Paul Bunyan's Axe) rests in Dantonio's hands. He wields it with a sense of purpose, but only with a fleeting sense of caution. He knows that his grip on it is threatened, and that if he were to lose it, he risks losing much more than that which lies in front of his own eyes. He risks this because from his side he hears voices pleading for Dan Roushar's ouster, while others clamor for the arrival of basketball season. A season hyped up to Rose Bowl-levels teeters on the brink of complete collapse for Michigan State, with their most hated nemesis standing before them, anxious to seize that axe out of Dantonio's hands. That leaves Dantonio no choice but to swing. No time to aim, no time to contemplate. No time to think. Just time to swing.

Swing away.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

The Battle of Michigan: The Arab Spring

Welcome to Part 5. Part 1: The Numbers. Part 2: The War of Perception. Part 3: The PSL. Part 4: 2011 and 2012.



There's a Latin saying I like to use a lot, mainly because it makes me look much more cultured than I actually am, partially because Kiefer Sutherland used it in Desert Saints, and also because it's pretty damn true.

De gestibus non est disputandum.

Literally translated, it means, "there is no disputing about tastes." Its meaning, in case it's not obvious, is that when it comes to matters of opinion, debate is pointless. If you're trying to engage someone in an argument about something they have strong belief in, you're never going to win. You can't talk people out of their beliefs, whether it be religion, politics, music, or...football.

For the past three years, many (most?) Michigan fans did everything they could to excuse Rich Rodriguez. The list of deflections and excuses is extensive, ranging from everything between the red wristbands he wore to the actual play on the field. Only when faced with an excessively overwhelming heap of evidence did the vast majority of Michigan fans finally agree that he simply wasn't going to get it done, and that the future no longer held any promise of improvement under his guidance. But until the evidence was mountain-high - increasingly laughable losses to Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and finally Mississippi State - did the diehards (myself included) finally abandon ship. The breaking point was different for everyone - for me the MSU game put one foot out the door, and the PSU game put the other one out and slammed the door shut - but until we each reached that point, we stood strong in our beliefs and convictions, no matter what anyone else said.

That is why Michigan fans won't win the fight against Michigan State fans, and vice versa. It's like Muslims vs. Jews at this point. Neither side can convince the other out of the belief that the other side is destined to lose the endless struggle. There's always some sort of excuse, and that applies to both sides. For three years, we've heard MSU fans (and recruits) jabbering about Michigan disrespecting the state by not pursuing many of the in-state players, and how Michigan State was "turning the state green" and that "Michigan State is THE university of Michigan", and other superlative, hyperbolic nonsense. During this time, Michigan fans had some good reasons and some bad reasons for this. A good reason was the blatant and obvious influences of certain people on the recruitments of certain star prospects now residing in East Lansing and Columbus. There was nothing Rich Rodriguez could've done to change these situations, because they began to fester under Carr. A bad reason was the "Michigan doesn't have enough talent, we'll recruit nationally anyway" schtick. Yes, Michigan is down the totem pole in terms of sheer numbers when it comes to high school talent in football. But if you toss it by the wayside, the stars you miss on will almost always come back to bite you, and that's as painful as not having them on your team. We got lucky in the Epic Fail 2007 Class when Ronald Johnson, Dionte Allen, Joseph Barksdale, and others left entirely, instead of picking local rivals of UofM. Not so lucky in recent years; regardless of how they got there, William Gholston and Lawrence Thomas at Michigan State are problems. Johnathan Hankins at Ohio State is a problem. When the neighbors set up shop in your kitchen and start cherry picking your groceries, it's not as simple as going back to the market to get more.

So now, present day. Three years of submitting to our East Lansing Overlords has given way to an uprising and demanding an end to the Dantonio regime, and our new leader dares to tread on the dictator's territory. And once he does, and has, a different line of rhetoric begins, one that is inherently laughable: that Michigan State is evolving into a national recruiting power and can afford to miss out on the state's best players, because they'll get equal or better ones from elsewhere - sounds eeriely like the comments from Michigan fans the last three years that MSU fans heartily laughed at while hanging their "Mission Accomplished" banner over the mitten.

Another excuse is "All the kids Michigan is landing were scUM leans anyway." Oh, so you're implying the playing field wasn't fair? And you feel comfortable stating this while Gholston, Fred Smith and Ed Davis put on MSU jerseys while their high school coach spends his days fetching Dantonio's coffee and bran muffin each morning? You're okay with that position while Lawrence Thomas and Mylan Hicks suit up for the Spartans, knowing that their coach from Renaissance famously threw UofM under the bus while bouncing Dantonio's balls off his chin? Things considerably soured for Michigan at OLSM during the latter years of Carr and Rodriguez's three years, and yet when Hoke comes in and immediately lands James Ross (the best player in the state), you get one of two excuses. One follows the mindset summed up by the title of a post on a Michigan State message board: "(OLSM coach George) Porritt showing his true Blue colors again", the comical notion that Porritt favors Michigan despite sending Kalin Lucas, Jon Misch and Dion Sims to East Lansing in recent years. The other is "Ross is too small anyway." He's the same size Greg Jones was in high school. I think he worked out pretty well for MSU. Ross was also a high priority for both Ohio State and Penn State, two schools that I'm pretty sure know a thing or two about linebacking.

And then when presented with the cases of Mario Ojemudia and Devin Funchess, students at a notoriously pro-MSU school in Farmington Hills Harrison (Agim Shabaj, Drew Stanton, Mark Dell), a school still heavily influenced by former Spartan Mill Coleman, MSU fans play the "playing time" card. Lifelong Michigan State fan Ojemudia was obviously scared away by depth chart at MSU and was sold on a dream by Hoke and Mattison. So basically, Hoke's taking the same approach Dantonio took when he arrived at Michigan State, but it's a shallow and flimsy pitch this time. At Cass Tech, MSU fans were all excited to be in the top two for Dior Mathis, and got their hopes up when MSU offered Royce Jenkins-Stone and Terry Richardson before Michigan did. And then when Dior was clearly ticketed for Oregon, and Richardson seems bound for Ann Arbor, they're both far too small and too Cissoko-like to ever be impact players. Never mind that Oregon is developing a pretty impressive track record with defensive backs, or the fact that Richardson has offers from Alabama, USC, Ohio State, Penn State, and other elite programs. If Nick Saban offers you as a defensive back, chances are you're pretty good at football. But by all means, pigeon-hole the kid because his size resembles that of another player who had already graduated from Cass by the time Terry got there. If Richardson went to Renaissance, MSU fans would be comparing him to Mylan Hicks. But because he goes to Cass Tech, he's Cissoko part two. Comparing players because they go to the same high school is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.

If Richardson was too small, Dantonio wouldn't have offered him. If Ross was too small, Dantonio wouldn't have offered him. If Ojemudia was too small, Dantonio wouldn't have offered him. You don't offer recruits a year before they sign if they aren't at the top of your board. I'm pretty sure James Ross was the first recruit either school offered for this class. He isn't "ideal" linebacker size, and isn't a physically imposing specimen like Gholston or Thomas. But he's also much, much more advanced as a football player than either of those two. That's not to say Gholston or LT won't be great. They absolutely can be. But so can Ross. His instincts are unmatched, and MSU fans trying to dismiss his commitment to Michigan as "he's too small" or "UM has more playing time" or "he was always a Michigan lean" are chewing on some exceptionally sour grapes.

Stop trying to spin what is plainly obvious: your "in-state dominance" was more a result of Michigan being thrown in the tank for three years. "Lifelong Michigan fans" still went elsewhere during Rodriguez's tenure. Whatever infrastructure Dantonio built in the state has already been surpassed by Hoke. If you think a bumpy first year will suddenly open the eyes of the recruits who have committed, and there will be some mass defection, you are sorely, sorely mistaken. Even Rodriguez never lost a single in-state recruit he got a verbal commitment from. The only in-state kid Michigan lost in recent memory (who was publically committed) was Jake Fisher, and that was because of the coaching change. Michigan State is coming off a (shared) Big Ten Championship, and an 11-win season, and now they can't even convince kids who grew up cheering for MSU and go to an MSU-friendly high school to commit to them. MSU may be able to salvage Aaron Burbridge - but it's unbelievable that Hoke has already pulled Michigan even. This is a kid that should've been committed to State months ago, and now Michigan has a real shot of stealing him away. Hoke has beaten Dantonio heads up in every single recruiting battle to date, and the future looks bleak too.

As for those who say Hoke is a terrible coach and was Michigan's Plan D or E or whatever (and even cite other Michigan people who wanted nothing to do with him): don't pretend to know how Michigan's coaching search went down. Even the vast majority of Michigan fans aren't sure what exactly happened. The general consensus is that Dave Brandon had a wink and nod agreement with Jim Harbaugh, and that it fell apart at the last minute when Harbaugh's NFL stock went nuclear. After that, no one knows for sure. There's a line of thinking that Les Miles was genuinely pursued, and politely declined, and then Michigan moved on to Hoke (making him a Plan C at the worst). There's another that says Miles was "pursued" only to placate the Miles faction that spent the last three years pouting and raving that they were ignored in 2007. This line of thinking points back to Brandon allegedly saying he would never hire Miles (everyone knows about the skeletons in his closet), and that he never offered Miles the job and was focused in on Hoke immediately after the Harbaugh agreement fell through. If that's the case, then that's not a bad Plan B. Brian at MGoBlog was famously opposed to Hoke's candidacy in 2007, and there remains a certain segment of the UM fanbase that believes Hoke is a patsy and Lloyd is really Emperor Palpatine, pulling the strings behind the scenes.

The fact is, Dantonio never did anything as a head coach prior to arriving at MSU that was more impressive than what Hoke did as a head coach prior to arriving at UM. Dantonio had success as a coordinator - on the staff of a proven cheater on a team that rode a felon and an ineligible athlete to a national title. As a head coach, Dantonio did nothing of merit at Cincinnati, and yet has proven himself to be a very dependable coach at State. Hoke also had success as an assistant, and he has a national championship ring on his finger too, from 1997. So he had an under .500 record at Ball State. Can you name a coach that had success at Ball State? Can you even tell me where Ball State is located? And yet he managed to win 12 games in his final season there in 2008, their first 10-win season since 1978. They scored the most points in school history that year, with 489. The second most was 2007, also coached by Hoke, with 409. After that, in third place? 377, in 1977. At San Diego State, Hoke took over a program that was 4-7, 5-7, 3-9, 4-8, and 2-10 in the five years prior to his arrival. Two years later, they were 9-4, losing four games by a combined 15 points, being the only team to stay within striking distance of TCU (until the Rose Bowl), and winning the Poinsettia Bowl by three touchdowns. No evidence exists to suggest Hoke is any worse of a coach than Dantonio was prior to taking over MSU's program. Using the aversion many Michigan fans had to him as proof he's a lousy coach is amusing, but useless.

Throw out all the excuses you want. "MSU's depth is scaring recruits away." "Some of these kids are too small." "Some of these kids are lifelong Michigan fans." "Hoke is selling a dream." "There will be mass decommits when we kill UM on the field this year."

Thank you, Rationalization Man. You have saved the village.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

The Battle of Michigan: 2011 and 2012

Part 4 and a continuation from the summer. Part 1: The Numbers. Part 2: The War of Perception. Part 3: The PSL.

In the almost six months since I finished Part 3 of the "Battle of Michigan" series, highlighting the ongoing battle between Michigan and Michigan State for the state's top high school prospects, much has changed. Both schools were burned by the loss of high level prospects previously thought to be near locks, and of course Michigan went through the change from Rich Rodriguez to Brady Hoke, a transition that is still causing ripples.

In Part 1, published on July 28th of last year, the 2011 instate battle looked as such:

And now we arrive at the present. Both coaches are coming off underwhelming, disappointing 2009 seasons on the field, and one of the two has some warmth under his seat. But at the same time, both are also becoming more entrenched in the state and building relationships with the coaches within the mitten.

Both UM and MSU have, at this moment, offered the following prospects this cycle:

1. LB Lawrence Thomas, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
2. WR DeAnthony Arnett, Saginaw
3. OL/DE Anthony Zettel, West Branch Ogemaw Heights
4. CB Valdez Showers, Madison Heights Madison
5. DE/LB Brennen Beyer, Canton Plymouth (Michigan)
6. RB Justice Hayes, Grand Blanc
7. OL Jake Fisher, Traverse City West (Michigan)
8. LB Ed Davis, Detroit Southeastern

Eight offers apiece at the end of July is abnormally high, indicating a deep year in-state. The early scoreboard reads Michigan 2, Michigan State 1, and it will of course be much different as time passes. If I had to guess today, I'd say Arnett goes out of state, Zettel goes to Michigan, Showers goes out of state, Hayes goes to Notre Dame, and Davis goes to MSU. Those are 100% guesses though, no inside info.

Furthermore, Michigan offered these kids, but MSU didn't:

1. CB Delonte Hollowell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
2. WR Shawn Conway, Birmingham Seaholm (Michigan)

Until the class is wrapped up and everyone is signed, this number is purely cosmetic, but at the moment, Michigan's 2011 in-state recruiting is at 40% (4 for 10).

On the other side, here are MSU's offers this year with no UM offer:

1. RB Onaje Miller, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
2. WR Jake Duzey, Troy Athens (Iowa)
3. LB/S Taiwan Jones, New Baltimore Anchor Bay (Michigan State)

Again, it's early, but MSU's percentage this year is 27.3% (3 for 11). This number in particular will most likely change wildly if history is any indicator, as MSU will probably extend several more in-state offers before the class is finished.

Since then, Michigan landed Justice Hayes, MSU landed Ed Davis, and both schools lost Anthony Zettel, DeAnthony Arnett, Valdez Showers, and Jake Fisher.

Here is the revised list of prospects that both UM and MSU offered in the 2011 recruiting cycle:
  1. DE/LB Lawrence Thomas, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  2. WR DeAnthony Arnett, Saginaw (Tennessee)
  3. OG/DE Anthony Zettel, West Branch Ogemaw Heights (Penn State)
  4. DE Brennen Beyer, Plymouth Canton (Michigan)
  5. CB Valdez Showers, Madison Heights Madison (Florida)
  6. RB Justice Hayes, Grand Blanc (Michigan)
  7. OT Jake Fisher, Traverse City West (Oregon)
  8. LB Ed Davis, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
In a bizarre twist, neither school offered the same instate prospect after the summer. These are the same eight players from July. The final head-to-head scoreboard for 2011 reads MSU 2, Michigan 2, with four going out of state. Zettel and Arnett were particularly damaging to UM and MSU, respectively. Zettel was a heavy lean to Michigan throughout the entire process, but had whispers in his ear that dissuaded any sort of early commitment, and when it became clear that Rich Rodriguez was a dead man walking, those whispers finally swayed him, and he committed to Penn State. Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison made a late charge, but Zettel stuck with his commitment to PSU. Arnett, on the other hand, favored MSU throughout most of the process, and as it turns out, MSU's coaches treated him as such, and ultimately dropped the ball. They took him for granted, and he slipped right through their fingers. After that, the numbers are a wash compared to the summer; Fisher dropped UM for Oregon, and Hayes was turned from Notre Dame.

Meanwhile, these are the final numbers for Michigan on 2011 instate; kids that UM offered but MSU did not. Shawn Conway is omitted because he is a non-qualifier.
  1. CB Delonte Hollowell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. LB Desmond Morgan, Holland West Ottawa (Michigan)
  3. CB Raymon Taylor, Highland Park (Michigan)
  4. RB Thomas Rawls, Flint Northern (Michigan)
These numbers combined with the ones above give Michigan a final 2011 instate recruiting percentage of 50% (6 of 12).

Conversely, here are MSU's signees instate who were not offered by Michigan:
  1. RB Onaje Miller, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
  2. TE Jake Duzey, Troy Athens (Iowa)
  3. LB Taiwan Jones, New Baltimore Anchor Bay (Michigan State)
  4. DE Damon Knox, Muskegon (Michigan State)
That puts MSU's final tally for 2011 at 41.7% (5 of 12). Michigan's percentage bumped up from 40% in July to 50% in the end, while MSU's percentage went up from 27.3 to 41.7.

The final tally during Rich Rodriguez's ill-fated tenure in Ann Arbor, straight up, head to head with Mark Dantonio: Michigan 11, Michigan State 10. The 11 for Michigan:
  1. Boubacar Cissoko
  2. Mike Martin
  3. Kenny Demens
  4. Rocko Khoury
  5. William Campbell
  6. Cameron Gordon
  7. Thomas Gordon
  8. Devin Gardner
  9. Austin White
  10. Brennen Beyer
  11. Justice Hayes
And the 10 for MSU:
  1. Fred Smith
  2. Tyler Hoover
  3. Edwin Baker
  4. Chris Norman
  5. Larry Caper
  6. Dion Sims
  7. William Gholston
  8. Mylan Hicks
  9. Lawrence Thomas
  10. Ed Davis
Factoring in the complete 2011 class now, in the last four classes, Michigan offered 40 prospects in the state of Michigan, landing 18 of the 40 (45%). Over the same time period, MSU offered 74 and landed 39 (52.7%).

So...that book is now closed. The "outsider" Rodriguez is gone, and the perception that he neglected the state of Michigan during his time here will live on in the minds of the people who want it to live on. Unfortunately, as is often the case, perception is often reality, facts be damned.

====================================================================

So now...here we sit, in early February 2011. Both UM and MSU have closed the door on the 2011 class and are in the process of diving head first into the 2012 class, especially in Michigan, where the overall talent level is probably the highest it's been since the loaded 2007 class. The last couple days in particular have seen a frenzy of offers going out instate from both sides, as Dantonio continues his mandate of making the state of Michigan #1 and Brady Hoke works to rebuild what Rich Rodriguez allegedly tore down.

Neither team has any commitments yet, but the list of prospects both schools have offered and are pursuing is impressive:
  1. LB James Ross, Orchard Lake St. Mary's
  2. WR Aaron Burbridge, Farmington Hills Harrison
  3. LB Royce Jenkins-Stone, Detroit Cass Tech
  4. CB Terry Richardson, Detroit Cass Tech
  5. DE Mario Ojemudia, Farmington Hills Harrison
In addition, Michigan has offered these prospects, but not MSU...:
  1. DT Dan O'Brien, Flint Powers
  2. TE Devin Funchess, Farmington Hills Harrison
  3. WR/TE Ron Thompson, Eastpointe East Detroit
...while MSU - but not UM - has offered the following:
  1. WR Dennis Norfleet, Detroit Martin Luther King
  2. OL Kelby Latta, Battle Creek Harper Creek
  3. DL Matt Godin, Novi Detroit Catholic Central
  4. DT Jabari Dean, Detroit Renaissance
  5. S Riley Bullough, Traverse City St. Francis
10 offers from MSU and 8 from UM - 13 prospects total - is a very, very large number so early in the process. It's a sure bet that both schools were certainly offer at least some of the kids the other side already has. And that's not even factoring in kids that neither have offered yet but are still evaluating and waiting to see in camp during the spring and summer.

It will be a very competitive year instate once again, and the battle lines are already being drawn. The general consensus among the "experts" and fans is that the top three are (in any order, really) Ross, O'Brien, and Burbridge. Cass Tech remains very friendly to Michigan, giving UM an inside edge on Jenkins-Stone and Richardson - and by extension James Ross at OLSM, who is close with the CT duo. Farmington Hills Harrison is still Spartan territory, and MSU has to be considered the favorite for Burbridge and Ojemudia (and Funchess if/when they offer). Bullough is quite obviously an MSU lock with his brother there and all the other connections, while Thompson grew up a big Michigan fan. O'Brien also grew up in a UM family and looks up to Mike Martin, but Michigan has some bridges to repair in the wake of the coaching change.

It's too early to make any sort of reasonable predictions about where these kids end up, how the numbers shake out, who wins the battle in 2012, but one thing is certain: the war of perception is over. Brady Hoke has already gotten back into the good graces of many high school coaches in the state of Michigan who were turned off or felt disrespected by Rich Rodriguez. You can argue the fairness of that until you're blue (or green) in the face, but the fact is, the outsider perception is that a "Michigan Man" is back in charge of Michigan, and the prestige and respect that that moniker entails is going to pay dividends, sooner or later.

Friday, October 8, 2010

What Do You Go Home To?


Some form of judgment: Saturday, 3:30 ET


Explosions In The Sky - What Do You Go Home To? .mp3


Found at bee mp3 search engine

What do you go home to?

For the majority of people, folks like you and me, life is, despite the drama we make of it, largely simple. We wake up in the morning, perform the tasks we have carved out for ourselves, eat at some point, socialize with colleagues at other points, and at the end of the day, at some point or another, we find our way back home, more often than not into a safe place where the world is simple and the sweet release of sleep undoes any type of stress we accumulated during the previous day. Life is a vicious circle in that the pattern of stress and agitation repeats itself; and life is cool in that there will always be that warm, cozy bed to collapse into when the day is long past and the sun is long set, and for hours, there is no trouble, no turmoil, no trepidation.

For an unlucky portion of us, the setting of the sun on the onset of fatigue offers no quarter. The soundless hours of night reserved for sleep sometimes offer a hauntingly lonesome silence, which some of us find ourselves trapped in, knowing the issues of one day are not erased by eight hours of unconsciousness. For some, what we do on any given day stays with us, no matter how terrible, and no matter how responsible we actually are for the circumstances. It's a cruel fact of life, I suppose, that even if you're a good, decent human being, sooner or later, you will find yourself awake at 3:00 AM, staring at the ceiling, unable to escape into the land of hope and dreams, trapped in the real world where there are people who despise you for what you've done and are intent on seeing your poor circumstances worsened, no matter what.

This is a situation Rich Rodriguez has found himself in for over two years now. The debate about how responsible he is for the given situation over the past 24+ months will never end, even long after he's dead and buried. But at some point, the time for debate passes, and the time for action arrives. Rarely is an opportunity presented to someone where they have the chance to exterminate a massive portion of the cancerous monkey that occupies your back, heart, and mind 24/7.

Tomorrow around 3:30, that opportunity will present itself to Rich Rodriguez.

It's been mentioned before, and has increased in frequency this week, but it's not hyperbole: This is the biggest game of Rich Rodriguez's Michigan tenure. But it's bigger than that. This is the biggest game for the winged helmets since that fateful, wretched day in Columbus in November 2006. Everything that has plagued the Rodriguez era in Ann Arbor, it all boils to the surface tomorrow afternoon at Michigan Stadium. Back to back losses to "Little Brother." Back to back seasons without a bowl game. A mythical perception of in-state dominance being lost, both in recruiting and in the eyes and minds of the public. The equally mythical perception that Rodriguez's offense is "finesse" and cannot succeed against physical Big Ten teams.

All of the above can be doused in gasoline and set ablaze in front of 110,000+ people tomorrow under the Ann Arbor sun. It will be difficult. It will be nerve-wracking, physically draining, and heart attack-inducing. With the defense being what it is, nothing is assured, no matter what. A shootout seems likely. And if I could pick only one coach in America to coach my team through an offensive explosion, I would pick Rich Rodriguez.

The moment he arrived in East Lansing as Michigan State head coach, Mark Dantonio had one priority in mind: Make the Michigan-Michigan State game matter again. Under John L, the game became a farce because MSU was so woefully coached. They could always be counted on to make the critical mistake and were just generally outclassed in essentially every aspect. It became an afterthought on Michigan's schedule. Dantonio vowed to change that, to make the Spartans tougher, to make them matter to everyone of the maize and blue persuasion; players, coaches, and fans alike.

Congratulations, Mark. You have our complete attention.

There will be no more underestimating. No more overlooking. No more dismissive waves from Michigan fans who can't be bothered to invest any time worrying about State. Since he opened his stupid, childish, hypocritical mouth three years ago, I've wanted to see Mark Dantonio suffer. He's made it abundantly clear how important this game is to him, black mark on the soul, all that theatrical nonsense like he's some kind of character in a dramatic football movie. When he had his heart attack last month, all that was set aside. That's not the kind of fate I wish upon the man. I want him to live a long and very healthy life. The kind of suffering I have in mind for that miserable wretch is the kind that Michigan can inflict on him tomorrow. I'd prefer to see 60 points and 700 yards and Sam the Eagle (Google it) trudging off the field with that same hateful look on his face like he just watched his dog get plowed by the mailman's truck in slow motion. Those extravagant numbers aren't realistic, so I'll settle for a small victory. One point more is all that's needed. A one point differential is all that's needed to extinguish the Big Lie, to push the mute button on the noise, to put the kids back in the crib.

I alluded to it last summer. The doomsday clock is ticking down once again. Around 6:30, 7:00 tomorrow evening, it will strike 0 for somebody. When that happens, what will we go home to?

Monday, August 2, 2010

The Battle of Michigan: The War of Perception

Part 2 of a multi-part series: Part 1: The Numbers.


First, a preface: Brian, in mentioning Part 1 of this series last week, seemed to imply that the very act of debating this is in essence conceding the debate itself, and that MSU's recruiting is the same mediocre product it's always been and Michigan fans shouldn't waste time analyzing it. I agree in part (and that's actually part of what I'm planning on discussing as this series thingie moves forward), but I also disagree at the same time. Michigan fans can bemoan the fact that we've fallen to the level where we're worried about State all they want; that doesn't change the reality that it's something that has gone from a blip on the radar to a tangible threat that cannot be ignored.

My opinion, anyway.


So. In Part 1, I did my best to put aside any editorializing and bias, simply relying on hard numbers and facts. Part 3 will be the part where I veer into the territory of complete opinion (MSU fans will want to skip that one). This part will probably fall somewhere in the middle - there will be numerous facts, but I will also be injecting a pro-Michigan viewpoint, so be forewarned if you're not of the Maize and Blue persuasion.

Anyway, as the title says, there is a war of perception going on within our state's borders. It's been going on for over two years now, and frankly, Michigan's losing. To some people, it's an irrelevant battle for some very particular reasons. For others, it's something that they believe has changed and must be corrected.

The perception is, simply put, that Michigan, and specifically Rich Rodriguez, disrespects high school coaches and players in the state of Michigan by pursuing similar (or in their minds, inferior) prospects in other states. These feelings are amplified by the presence of Rodriguez, a complete outsider from the hills of West Virginia, in contrast to the past 40 years of Bo-Mo-Lloyd. Never mind that Lloyd was from the hills of Tennessee himself. But that's another argument for another day.

I have a feeling that certain people would've tried to kick start this line of thought even if Lloyd Carr had stayed as UM head coach or if Les Miles had been hired or something, because its roots reside in East Lansing and the arrival of one Mark Dantonio. I mentioned this in passing in Part 1, but one of the cornerstones of Dantonio's tenure in East Lansing is the re-dedication to bringing in the in-state kids, in making Michigan State THE university of Michigan.

A quick glance at recruiting, and you see man-beasts like William Gholston and Lawrence Thomas going to Michigan State, the historically inferior program in the state, and it's easy to assume that MSU has successfully shifted the balance of power in the mitten.

However, when the argument comes up that Rodriguez is neglecting/disrespecting/ignoring/whatever in-state kids, consider these numbers:

2002: Michigan 11, MSU 7
2003: Michigan 6, MSU 4
2004: Michigan 5, MSU 8
2005: Michigan 6, MSU 6
2006: Michigan 4, MSU 7
2007: Michigan 5, MSU 8
2008: Michigan 5, MSU 13
2009: Michigan 4, MSU 12
2010: Michigan 4, MSU 10
2011 (to date): Michigan 4, MSU 3

In case it isn't obvious, these are the numbers of in-state recruits each program has taken in the Rivals era.

Outside of the one outlying year (2002), Rich Rodriguez's recruiting in the state of Michigan is almost identical to Lloyd Carr's final years. The "change" is the aforementioned in-state blitz by Dantonio, which has somehow been spun into a negative UM light at the same time. A pretty impressive spin, I must admit.

As for Gholston and Thomas, the in-state supers who would generally be thought of as players well above Michigan State's payrate and would either go to Michigan or go out of state:

Player A:
Consensus prep All-American . . . named Parade Magazine and Rivalnet National Player of the Year . . . selected Defensive Player of the Year by PrepStar, SuperPrep and Rivalnet . . . ranked among the nation's top five players by nearly every recruiting publication, including No. 1 by Rivalnet, No. 2 by The National Recruiting Advisor, No. 2 by Tom Lemming's Prep Football Report and No. 5 by SuperPrep . . . rated the state's top prospect by the Detroit Free Press, The Detroit News and Lansing State Journal . . . the Midwest's top-ranked player recorded 102 tackles (63 solos, 39 assists), including nine sacks, and forced four fumbles in 1998 . . .


Player B:
Consensus prep All-American . . . rated the nation�s No. 1 prospect by ESPN.com recruiting analyst Tom Lemming . . . also ranked among the country�s top players by SuperPrep (No. 8) . . . listed among the nation�s top receivers by Lemming (No. 1), PrepStar (No. 2) and SuperPrep (No. 3) . . . labeled the No. 1 player in the Midwest by PrepStar, SuperPrep and the Detroit Free Press . . . named Midwest Region Offensive MVP by PrepStar . . . rated the state�s top player by the Detroit Free Press, The Detroit News and Lansing State Journal . . . three-time all-state selection . . .


Player C:
SuperPrep, PrepStar and Max Emfinger All-American . . . rated among the nation's top 20 quarterbacks by SuperPrep (No. 15), Student Sports Magazine (No. 15), TheInsiders.com (No. 17) and ESPN.com's Tom Lemming (No. 18) . . . also ranked among the country's top passing QBs (No. 7) by USA Today's Max Emfinger . . . listed among the Midwest's top prospects by the Detroit Free Press (No. 15) and SuperPrep (No. 17) . . . ranked among the state's top seniors by The Detroit News (No. 3), Lansing State Journal (No. 3) and Detroit Free Press (No. 6) . . . named to The Detroit News and Detroit Free Press Dream Teams . . .

You look at those profiles, those accolades...they sound like players who would snub their noses at State and take their skills to Michigan, don't they?

Player A is TJ Duckett. Player B is Charles Rogers. Player C is Drew Stanton.

All Mark Dantonio has done is restore what John L. Smith destroyed. MSU has always fared better in-state, and they have always landed their fair share of in-state stars who were always more enamored with MSU than UM. The only historical difference right now is Michigan being in the tank at 8-16 and being run by a perceived outsider who has rubbed a few people the wrong way.

2009 recruit Reid Fragel in 2008:
"To me, being a prospect from Michigan, it sort of feels like Michigan is being disrespectful toward the recruits in this state by going outside the state," Reid Fragel, a senior tight end from Grosse Pointe South High School who's committed to Ohio State, told The Columbus Dispatch. "I've heard some things saying they might be looking to the South more, while Michigan State is looking in-state. I think that's really benefiting (the Spartans), with their recruiting class this year especially."

So...why is Reid Fragel entering his second year with Ohio State and not Michigan State? If respect is such a big thing to him, why did he commit to an out-of-state program (OSU) over the in-state one that offered him a scholarship (MSU)? He "heard some things" about Michigan looking to the South? What things? From who?

MSU running back Edwin Baker, in the same Daily article:
"Michigan is not looking in-state," said Baker, rivals.com's No. 2 in-state prospect. "They want to go down South and get away from (Michigan), and that's going to pull all the talent toward Michigan State's way."

I'll discuss what exactly is "pulling" all the talent Michigan State's way in Part 3, but Baker's claim is just as false now as it was when he made it two years ago. Particuarly weird coming from him, since he was the one Rich Rodriguez wanted (not Larry Caper). Fragel's bitterness was at least partially understandable, as he wanted to play tight end in college (like he is with OSU), but Michigan liked him more as an offensive tackle.

Even Rodriguez antagonist Dave Birkett (inadvertently?) took a swing at the perception that Rodriguez doesn't care about recruiting in Michigan:
In three years under Rodriguez, Michigan has signed players from 14 different states. Typically, the Wolverines do most of their recruiting in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but they also have a successful Florida pipeline and have secured commitments from non-traditional states like Arizona, Louisiana and Massachusetts.

Emphasis mine.

This is what Rodriguez has said all along ever since he arrived. If somebody can find a link with a direct quote from RR himself, thanks, but I have heard him say numerous times he wants UM's recruiting base to be MI-OH-PA, and then going down to Florida and branching out nationally from there. He has never - not once - said anything disparaging about the talent in this state in comparison to others.

And it would be easy to. Do you think it's a coincidence that MSU's always cleaned up in the state and has historically been a second tier program? The two are linked. You can make a chicken and the egg argument, but the end result is the same. MSU relies on in-state talent because they are historically mediocre and can't recruit nationally, and they are historically mediocre because their recruiting classes are full of state of Michigan kids who simply aren't as good as kids in other states. The state of Michigan isn't even on the radar for top states in terms of high school talent. After the big three (Florida, Texas, California), people rattle off states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia. Michigan never comes up, because there is never enough depth in state to support a high level program on its own merits, let alone two.

So, you ask why Michigan doesn't offer and take a dozen in-state prospects every year? Simply put: It's because they don't strive to be Michigan State. Mark Dantonio doesn't have some bleeding heart sentimentality to the poor inner city Detroit kids who are dying for a way out. He's taking what he can get. If MSU had the clout and the ability to go into Virginia and snag a Curtis Grant (5-star linebacker this year), does anyone really believe he'd turn him away in favor of Detroit Southeastern linebacker Ed Davis, who, while a fine player in his own right, doesn't measure up to Grant? Good coaches want the best players, period. And contrary to the partisan lines that have been drawn, I do believe both Rodriguez and Dantonio are good coaches. They're very different in their methods and beliefs, but they're both good coaches and both have the ability to identify talent.

But the fact remains, even now, Michigan's national footprint is much larger than Michigan State's. Don't believe me? Do you think Michigan State has the ability to go into South Carolina and take a star lineman away from the in-state Gamecocks? Can MSU go into Arizona and grab a pair of 4-star level prospects with numerous Pac-10 offers? Can they grab a Florida kid with offers from Florida, Ohio State, USC and Georgia? If and when Michigan State reaches this level, a lot of people are going to be in for a surprise when it comes to who gets offered, where they're from, etc.

I give the Spartans credit. They've absolutely jumped on the opportunity that's been served up to them on a platter. First time in a generation that UM is down, and they're exploiting it to the fullest with the most fundamental of tactics - targeting the hearts and minds of the masses. The two sides have very, very different views of reality, but sometimes it's the perception that matters the most, and there's little doubt that MSU is winning the war of perception. Doesn't matter what the truth is, it's the fundamental definition of the Big Lie: no matter how outlandish and how false something is, if you repeat it enough and never deviate from your message, eventually people will believe it.

Like I mentioned at the onset of this one, Part 3 will be even more opinionated than this one. MSU folks will want to skip it. A large portion of it will actually be a rehash of a few sensitive issues I've talked about here before, but sometimes things have to be repeated just so the message gets across.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

The Battle of Michigan: The Numbers


Part 1 of a multi-part series.

Since Rich Rodriguez arrived in Ann Arbor 19+ months ago, one of the main focus points of his tenure, outside the actual football field, has been the emphasis, or perceived lack of emphasis, on in-state recruiting. The picture has been painted that Rodriguez is neglecting the pool of talent in the state of Michigan, a picture that has been enhanced and promoted by a united front in East Lansing. The irony is this was not born out of a desire to attack Michigan and Rodriguez, but it was the plan for Michigan State the moment Mark Dantonio arrived in East Lansing a full year before Rodriguez at Michigan. After the abomination that was the John L. Smith era at MSU, Dantonio was brought in to restore a sense of stability and toughness, starting with a renewed focus on the state of Michigan and a rebuilding of the relationships with in-state high school coaches that eroded under Smith. This became easier once Lloyd Carr retired and Rodriguez was hired. But this will be discussed more in depth later in this series. This part will be dedicated solely to the numbers and facts.

Of coure, being that this delves into the bizarre and erratic nature of football recruiting, even "facts" can be disputed at times. Offers aren't offers, recruitments are rarely black and white, and perception counts. Here, I will attempt to lay out the facts as I know them in an unbiased and objective manner. My own personal opinion will be expressed at a later time. To be frank, this isn't easy. This is a hotly contested issue between Michigan and Michigan State fans, and both sides have, in many cases, a completely different perception of how things have unfolded in the last two and a half years in our state's battleground. For example, many Michigan fans don't look at the 2008 recruiting class when looking at Rodriguez's recruiting acumen, as the majority of the class was put together by Lloyd Carr and company. For the sake of this analysis though, the 2008 class will be considered, and here's my logic: the on-field results (all the 3-9 ugliness) are absolutely considered when looking at how Rodriguez has performed as UM coach. If you hold that against him, then you must also consider the 2008 class when looking at his recruiting. It's uneven to dismiss the 2008 class as Carr's, but then not give Rodriguez the leeway of a mulligan on the field. So, point is, the 2008 class will be factored in here.

Another issue of contention is, who actually had a scholarship offer, and who was actually recruited to the end? Fans on both sides are conveniently selective on this matter. In a perfect world, all recruiting cases would be cut and dry like a Thomas Gordon, a Jake Fisher, a Lawrence Thomas, etc, where both schools clearly offered the prospect, clearly recruited the kid to the end, and clearly wanted him in the class before losing out to the other side. Unfortunately, things aren't that even. MSU fans trumpet kids like Larry Caper and Dion Sims as recruiting victories over Michigan. Michigan fans point to Cameron Gordon as a win over MSU. The reality is slightly different (Caper's Michigan offer was from Carr, Rodriguez never recruited him; Sims was recruited by UM as a defensive end and the two sides never spoke after the summer; Gordon had an MSU offer early on but was skittish on his position and MSU filled up at WR), but for the sake of clarity and fairness, when compiling the analysis here, an "offer" will be treated as an offer, period. The one exception I will make that I can think of off the top of my head is Onaje Miller, because I know for a fact that Michigan did not extend any sort of offer in his direction, verbal or otherwise. It wasn't a case of UM offering but not pursuing, or offering and cooling later on. They simply didn't offer, at any point, period.

Anyway...with all that said, let's begin.

In the 2008 recruiting cycle, Michigan AND Michigan State both offered the following in-state prospects:
  1. CB Boubacar Cissoko, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. DE Nick Perry, Detroit Martin Luther King (USC)
  3. RB Jonas Gray, Detroit Country Day (Notre Dame)
  4. WR Fred Smith, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
  5. DT Mike Martin, Novi Catholic Central (Michigan)
  6. LB Kenny Demens, Detroit Country Day (Michigan)
  7. DE Tyler Hoover, Novi (Michigan State)
  8. OL Rocko Khoury, Traverse City West (Michigan)
  9. OL DeOn'tae Pannell, Birmingham Groves (Penn State)
The score in battles that both schools offered: Michigan 4, Michigan State 2.

In addition, these prospects were offered by Michigan, but not by Michigan State:
  1. OL Dann O'Neill, Grand Haven (Michigan)
O'Neill was the only one, putting Michigan's in-state recruiting for 2008 at 50% (10 offers, 5 commits).

On the other side, Michigan State offered these prospects, but Michigan did not:
  1. RB Mark Ingram, Flint Southwestern (Alabama)
  2. DB Charles Burrell, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
  3. OL Ethan Ruhland, Lake Orion (Michigan State)
  4. WR Keshawn Martin, Westland John Glenn (Michigan State)
  5. RB Caulton Ray, Birmingham Brother Rice (Michigan State)
  6. OL Anthony Woods, Melvindale (Michigan State)
  7. OL Chris McDonald, Sterling Heights Utica Ford (Michigan State)
  8. RB Glenn Winston, Detroit Denby (Michigan State)
  9. DB Tim Dandridge, Detroit Highland Park (Minnesota)
  10. DB Trenton Robinson, Bay City Central (Michigan State)
  11. OL John Deyo, Richland Gull Lake (Michigan State)
  12. ATH Myles White, Livonia Stevenson (Michigan State)
  13. OL Zach Hueter, North Branch (Michigan State)
These numbers put MSU's 2008 in-state recruiting at 59.1% (22 offers, 13 commits).

=================================================================

Understandably, the above data is taken with a grain of salt due to the coaching change at Michigan and the understandably dubious link Rodriguez had with assembling the class. The 2009 class is more clear.

In the 2009 recruiting cycle, Michigan and Michigan State both offered the following prospects:
  1. DT William Campbell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. RB Edwin Baker, Oak Park (Michigan State)
  3. LB Chris Norman, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  4. WR James Jackson, Grand Ledge (Ohio State)
  5. WR Cameron Gordon, Inkster (Michigan)
  6. RB Larry Caper, Battle Creek Central (Michigan State)
  7. TE Dion Sims, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (Michigan State)
  8. DB Thomas Gordon, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
The score in battles where both schools offered: Michigan State 4, Michigan 3.

The overall score after analyzing both 2008 and 2009: Michigan 7, Michigan State 6.

**(Again, I understand there are extra circumstances surrounding Cam Gordon, Caper, and Sims. I'm erring on the side of caution.)

These prospects were offered by Michigan in 2009, but not Michigan State:
  1. RB Teric Jones, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
Again, only one. That puts Michigan's 2009 in-state recruiting at 44% (9 offers, 4 commits).

Here are the prospects offered by MSU in 2009, but not Michigan:
  1. TE Reid Fragel, Grosse Pointe South (Ohio State)
  2. DT Blake Treadwell, East Lansing (Michigan State)
  3. LB Jeremy Gainer, Livonia Clarenceville (Michigan State)
  4. QB Andrew Maxwell, Midland (Michigan State)
  5. TE DeMarkus Bracy, Flint Southwestern (Cincinnati)
  6. OL Zac Matthias, Hemlock (Wisconsin)
  7. WR Dana Dixon, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  8. WR Donald Spencer, Ypsilanti (Michigan State)
  9. K Kevin Muma, Troy (Michigan State)
  10. LB Will Schwarz, Troy (Central Michigan)
  11. OL Micajah Reynolds, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
  12. WR Bennie Fowler, Detroit Country Day (Michigan State)
That puts MSU's 2009 in-state recruiting at 60% (12 out of 20).

At this point, a trend can obviously be seen, with MSU offering 42 in-state players in 2008 and 2009, while Michigan only offered 19. This will be discussed later in the series.

===================================================================

As each year passes and both coaches establish themselves in-state, the data becomes more and more reliable. Let's look at 2010.

Both schools offered the following prospects last year (NOTE: Ricardo Miller is obviously omitted from all data here, as he was obviously a transplant from Florida):
  1. DE William Gholston, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
  2. QB Devin Gardner, Inkster (Michigan)
  3. QB Robert Bolden, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (Penn State)
  4. CB Dior Mathis, Detroit Cass Tech (Oregon)
  5. DE CJ Olaniyan, Warren Mott (Penn State)
  6. CB Mylan Hicks, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  7. RB Austin White, Livonia Stevenson (Michigan)
Much shorter list in this cycle. The score for 2010: Michigan 2, Michigan State 2.

And the 2008-2009-2010 score, head to head: Michigan 9, Michigan State 8.

To expand, Michigan offered these in-staters last year, while MSU did not:
  1. WR Jeremy Jackson, Ann Arbor Pioneer (Michigan)
  2. DT Johnathan Hankins, Detroit Southeastern (Ohio State)
That leaves Michigan's 2010 in-state recruiting at 33% (3 of 9).

Here are MSU's 2010 in-state offers Michigan didn't pursue:
  1. LB Max Bullough, Traverse City St. Francis (Michigan State)
  2. K/P Mike Sadler, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (Michigan State)
  3. LB Austin Gray, Warren Fitzgerald (Iowa)
  4. QB Joe Boisture, Saline (Michigan State)
  5. RB Nick Hill, Chelsea (Michigan State)
  6. DT Carl Davis, Sterling Heights Stevenson (Iowa)
  7. WR Tony Lippett, Detroit Crockett (Michigan State)
  8. RB Jeremy Langford, Westland John Glenn (Michigan State)
  9. DE Taylor Calero, Southfield Christian (Michigan State)
  10. OL Paul Jorgenson, Dewitt (Northwestern)
  11. WR Tony Jones, Grand Blanc (Northwestern)
  12. ATH Daniel Easterly, Detroit Cass Tech (Missouri)
  13. FB Niko Palazeti, Novi Catholic Central (Michigan State)
Again, a noticably wider net cast by the Spartans. Their 2010 numbers check in at 50% (20 offers, 10 commitments).

Also, I again acknowledge and understand some extenuating circumstances with a few of these kids like Gholston, Bolden, Mathis, Olaniyan. I can again go into these more indepth when I editorialize later in the series, but for now, again, an offer is an offer.

==================================================================

And now we arrive at the present. Both coaches are coming off underwhelming, disappointing 2009 seasons on the field, and one of the two has some warmth under his seat. But at the same time, both are also becoming more entrenched in the state and building relationships with the coaches within the mitten.

Both UM and MSU have, at this moment, offered the following prospects this cycle:
  1. LB Lawrence Thomas, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  2. WR DeAnthony Arnett, Saginaw
  3. OL/DE Anthony Zettel, West Branch Ogemaw Heights
  4. CB Valdez Showers, Madison Heights Madison
  5. DE/LB Brennen Beyer, Canton Plymouth (Michigan)
  6. RB Justice Hayes, Grand Blanc
  7. OL Jake Fisher, Traverse City West (Michigan)
  8. LB Ed Davis, Detroit Southeastern
Eight offers apiece at the end of July is abnormally high, indicating a deep year in-state. The early scoreboard reads Michigan 2, Michigan State 1, and it will of course be much different as time passes. If I had to guess today, I'd say Arnett goes out of state, Zettel goes to Michigan, Showers goes out of state, Hayes goes to Notre Dame, and Davis goes to MSU. Those are 100% guesses though, no inside info.

Furthermore, Michigan offered these kids, but MSU didn't:
  1. CB Delonte Hollowell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. WR Shawn Conway, Birmingham Seaholm (Michigan)
Until the class is wrapped up and everyone is signed, this number is purely cosmetic, but at the moment, Michigan's 2011 in-state recruiting is at 40% (4 for 10).

On the other side, here are MSU's offers this year with no UM offer:
  1. RB Onaje Miller, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
  2. WR Jake Duzey, Troy Athens (Iowa)
  3. LB/S Taiwan Jones, New Baltimore Anchor Bay (Michigan State)
Again, it's early, but MSU's percentage this year is 27.3% (3 for 11). This number in particular will most likely change wildly if history is any indicator, as MSU will probably extend several more in-state offers before the class is finished.

==================================================================

The summary?

Since 2008, the head to head scoreboard is Michigan 11, Michigan State 9.

Since 2008, Michigan has offered 38 in-state prospects, landing commitments from 16 of those 38 (42.1%).

MSU, on the other hand, has offered a staggering 73 players in-state. Of those 73, they've landed 38 (52.1%).

In the last four classes, both schools have offered 32 players. Of those 32, we must exclude the five from this year who haven't committed yet for the sake of the data. So, from those 27 over the past four classes who signed somewhere and were offered by both UM and MSU, Michigan landed 11 (40.7%), Michigan State landed 9 (33.3%), and 7 (25.9%) signed elsewhere.

What does all this mean, and how does it affect certain perceptions that exist? Well, there's for you to determine on your own. As for what I think, that'll be in Part 2.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Obsession.

One of the most arrogant things about the internet portion of the Michigan fanbase is whenever somebody points out how many topics are about Michigan at any given time on a Michigan State message board. It's the old joke about how Sparty is always obsessed with Michigan and would rather see Michigan fail rather than see their own team succeed.

Well, right now, at The Fort, Michigan's premium Rivals message board, there are roughly 30 topics about Michigan State. Now obviously, this isn't the norm, and I WOULD guess that on any normal day, there are more UM topics on MSU message boards than vice versa...but obsession goes both ways.

So, the big debate is was it proper for Michigan fans to cheer for Michigan State against Louisville in the Elite Eight? One side says that an MSU win would bolster the image of the Big Ten in the media, and that would be beneficial for everybody. The other side says that MSU playing in the Final Four in Detroit is damaging to John Beilein's efforts at rebuilding Michigan. I tend to lean toward the latter argument. Michigan and Michigan State always battle over top basketball prospects in the state of Michigan, and in the city of Detroit in particular. MSU, naturally, has won the vast majority of these battles over the past dozen years. So the thing is, how does this effect things? When MSU went to the Final Four in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2005, it didn't really matter, because Michigan was in the toilet anyway; MSU was going to win those recruiting battles no matter what. But now that Michigan is on its way back, and the fact that the Final Four is right there in Detroit...does it matter? Does it really make a difference to guys like Trey Zeigler and Ray McCallum? There might not be a way to tell. If pushed for an answer, I'd guess that the effect is minimal. MSU is already very high on the minds of all the kids in Detroit and elsewhere in the state. If MSU getting to the Final Four is the event that pushes some of those kids to commit to State, then they're obviously the kind of kids that want to go to the established program instead of the building program, and that means Michigan didn't have much of a chance at them anyway.

But there is another aspect of this whole thing, and this is where I have much more resolve. This whole "cheering for the conference business". Ask yourself, do you think MSU fans were rooting for Michigan in the 1998 Rose Bowl? Do you think they wanted Michigan to win a national championship because it was good for the conference? Do you think they weren't cheering for USC and Texas against Michigan in recent Rose Bowls? Do you think they felt bad for Michigan during last year's 3-9 nightmare? Do you think they're upset when Michigan loses or misses out on a recruit because that's bad for the Big Ten? Do you think they were depressed when Michigan basketball was exposed by the rolling SUV and had to remove the banners?

The answer to all of the above is "hell no". MSU fans don't just want Michigan to fail. They want Michigan to fail in the most public, spectacular, and humiliating way possible. That's why Mike Hart called them "Little Brother". That's why the MSU Rivals site employs people who rank William Campbell as the 12th best player in the state and launch personal attacks on recruits who commit to Michigan. They cater to the fringe element of the Michigan State fanbase. Their lunacy is grotesque and an embarassment to "journalism".

But that works both ways, too. The elitist side of the Michigan fanbase doesn't like to admit it, but the schadenfreude flows freely out of Ann Arbor, too. When Johnelle Smith was in charge in East Lansing, Michigan fans loved it. When Memphis had MSU punched out at halftime last year, Michigan fans loved it. The hatred Michigan fans have for Michigan State is different by design but almost equal in intensity. While MSU fans hate Michigan because there IS a sense of inferiority, Michigan fans hate MSU because of that same maniacal fringe element that is much more vocal in the MSU fanbase than the Michigan side. I'm not saying all MSU fans or even the majority of MSU fans are stark raving mad psychopaths...but they're much more noticeable. It burns MSU people up that they're 3rd on the pecking order of programs Michigan dislikes. It burns Michigan people up that the loonies of the MSU fanbase seem to speak for all of them.

In the end, it's all equal. There is strong dislike on both sides for the other, and personally, I think it's an abomination for a Michigan fan to cheer for Michigan State to get to the Final Four. Not because of anything that may come of this in recruiting, but because MSU fans aren't going to do the same for UM. I cheered for Kansas, I cheered for Louisville, and I'll be cheering for Connecticut. I'm a Michigan fan, not a Big Ten fan, and a Michigan fan doesn't cheer for Michigan State.

Monday, April 7, 2008

Jumpin' Jack Flash (bang), it's a (tear) gas, gas, gas

How do you know when spring is really here?

When MSU students are getting owned by the police, of course.

This has essentially nothing to do with sports of any kind...but it sure makes me smile.
















Sparty On, you drunken fools!

(last picture taken from MGoBlog)