Showing posts with label Recruiting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Recruiting. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

The Battle of Michigan: The Arab Spring

Welcome to Part 5. Part 1: The Numbers. Part 2: The War of Perception. Part 3: The PSL. Part 4: 2011 and 2012.



There's a Latin saying I like to use a lot, mainly because it makes me look much more cultured than I actually am, partially because Kiefer Sutherland used it in Desert Saints, and also because it's pretty damn true.

De gestibus non est disputandum.

Literally translated, it means, "there is no disputing about tastes." Its meaning, in case it's not obvious, is that when it comes to matters of opinion, debate is pointless. If you're trying to engage someone in an argument about something they have strong belief in, you're never going to win. You can't talk people out of their beliefs, whether it be religion, politics, music, or...football.

For the past three years, many (most?) Michigan fans did everything they could to excuse Rich Rodriguez. The list of deflections and excuses is extensive, ranging from everything between the red wristbands he wore to the actual play on the field. Only when faced with an excessively overwhelming heap of evidence did the vast majority of Michigan fans finally agree that he simply wasn't going to get it done, and that the future no longer held any promise of improvement under his guidance. But until the evidence was mountain-high - increasingly laughable losses to Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and finally Mississippi State - did the diehards (myself included) finally abandon ship. The breaking point was different for everyone - for me the MSU game put one foot out the door, and the PSU game put the other one out and slammed the door shut - but until we each reached that point, we stood strong in our beliefs and convictions, no matter what anyone else said.

That is why Michigan fans won't win the fight against Michigan State fans, and vice versa. It's like Muslims vs. Jews at this point. Neither side can convince the other out of the belief that the other side is destined to lose the endless struggle. There's always some sort of excuse, and that applies to both sides. For three years, we've heard MSU fans (and recruits) jabbering about Michigan disrespecting the state by not pursuing many of the in-state players, and how Michigan State was "turning the state green" and that "Michigan State is THE university of Michigan", and other superlative, hyperbolic nonsense. During this time, Michigan fans had some good reasons and some bad reasons for this. A good reason was the blatant and obvious influences of certain people on the recruitments of certain star prospects now residing in East Lansing and Columbus. There was nothing Rich Rodriguez could've done to change these situations, because they began to fester under Carr. A bad reason was the "Michigan doesn't have enough talent, we'll recruit nationally anyway" schtick. Yes, Michigan is down the totem pole in terms of sheer numbers when it comes to high school talent in football. But if you toss it by the wayside, the stars you miss on will almost always come back to bite you, and that's as painful as not having them on your team. We got lucky in the Epic Fail 2007 Class when Ronald Johnson, Dionte Allen, Joseph Barksdale, and others left entirely, instead of picking local rivals of UofM. Not so lucky in recent years; regardless of how they got there, William Gholston and Lawrence Thomas at Michigan State are problems. Johnathan Hankins at Ohio State is a problem. When the neighbors set up shop in your kitchen and start cherry picking your groceries, it's not as simple as going back to the market to get more.

So now, present day. Three years of submitting to our East Lansing Overlords has given way to an uprising and demanding an end to the Dantonio regime, and our new leader dares to tread on the dictator's territory. And once he does, and has, a different line of rhetoric begins, one that is inherently laughable: that Michigan State is evolving into a national recruiting power and can afford to miss out on the state's best players, because they'll get equal or better ones from elsewhere - sounds eeriely like the comments from Michigan fans the last three years that MSU fans heartily laughed at while hanging their "Mission Accomplished" banner over the mitten.

Another excuse is "All the kids Michigan is landing were scUM leans anyway." Oh, so you're implying the playing field wasn't fair? And you feel comfortable stating this while Gholston, Fred Smith and Ed Davis put on MSU jerseys while their high school coach spends his days fetching Dantonio's coffee and bran muffin each morning? You're okay with that position while Lawrence Thomas and Mylan Hicks suit up for the Spartans, knowing that their coach from Renaissance famously threw UofM under the bus while bouncing Dantonio's balls off his chin? Things considerably soured for Michigan at OLSM during the latter years of Carr and Rodriguez's three years, and yet when Hoke comes in and immediately lands James Ross (the best player in the state), you get one of two excuses. One follows the mindset summed up by the title of a post on a Michigan State message board: "(OLSM coach George) Porritt showing his true Blue colors again", the comical notion that Porritt favors Michigan despite sending Kalin Lucas, Jon Misch and Dion Sims to East Lansing in recent years. The other is "Ross is too small anyway." He's the same size Greg Jones was in high school. I think he worked out pretty well for MSU. Ross was also a high priority for both Ohio State and Penn State, two schools that I'm pretty sure know a thing or two about linebacking.

And then when presented with the cases of Mario Ojemudia and Devin Funchess, students at a notoriously pro-MSU school in Farmington Hills Harrison (Agim Shabaj, Drew Stanton, Mark Dell), a school still heavily influenced by former Spartan Mill Coleman, MSU fans play the "playing time" card. Lifelong Michigan State fan Ojemudia was obviously scared away by depth chart at MSU and was sold on a dream by Hoke and Mattison. So basically, Hoke's taking the same approach Dantonio took when he arrived at Michigan State, but it's a shallow and flimsy pitch this time. At Cass Tech, MSU fans were all excited to be in the top two for Dior Mathis, and got their hopes up when MSU offered Royce Jenkins-Stone and Terry Richardson before Michigan did. And then when Dior was clearly ticketed for Oregon, and Richardson seems bound for Ann Arbor, they're both far too small and too Cissoko-like to ever be impact players. Never mind that Oregon is developing a pretty impressive track record with defensive backs, or the fact that Richardson has offers from Alabama, USC, Ohio State, Penn State, and other elite programs. If Nick Saban offers you as a defensive back, chances are you're pretty good at football. But by all means, pigeon-hole the kid because his size resembles that of another player who had already graduated from Cass by the time Terry got there. If Richardson went to Renaissance, MSU fans would be comparing him to Mylan Hicks. But because he goes to Cass Tech, he's Cissoko part two. Comparing players because they go to the same high school is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.

If Richardson was too small, Dantonio wouldn't have offered him. If Ross was too small, Dantonio wouldn't have offered him. If Ojemudia was too small, Dantonio wouldn't have offered him. You don't offer recruits a year before they sign if they aren't at the top of your board. I'm pretty sure James Ross was the first recruit either school offered for this class. He isn't "ideal" linebacker size, and isn't a physically imposing specimen like Gholston or Thomas. But he's also much, much more advanced as a football player than either of those two. That's not to say Gholston or LT won't be great. They absolutely can be. But so can Ross. His instincts are unmatched, and MSU fans trying to dismiss his commitment to Michigan as "he's too small" or "UM has more playing time" or "he was always a Michigan lean" are chewing on some exceptionally sour grapes.

Stop trying to spin what is plainly obvious: your "in-state dominance" was more a result of Michigan being thrown in the tank for three years. "Lifelong Michigan fans" still went elsewhere during Rodriguez's tenure. Whatever infrastructure Dantonio built in the state has already been surpassed by Hoke. If you think a bumpy first year will suddenly open the eyes of the recruits who have committed, and there will be some mass defection, you are sorely, sorely mistaken. Even Rodriguez never lost a single in-state recruit he got a verbal commitment from. The only in-state kid Michigan lost in recent memory (who was publically committed) was Jake Fisher, and that was because of the coaching change. Michigan State is coming off a (shared) Big Ten Championship, and an 11-win season, and now they can't even convince kids who grew up cheering for MSU and go to an MSU-friendly high school to commit to them. MSU may be able to salvage Aaron Burbridge - but it's unbelievable that Hoke has already pulled Michigan even. This is a kid that should've been committed to State months ago, and now Michigan has a real shot of stealing him away. Hoke has beaten Dantonio heads up in every single recruiting battle to date, and the future looks bleak too.

As for those who say Hoke is a terrible coach and was Michigan's Plan D or E or whatever (and even cite other Michigan people who wanted nothing to do with him): don't pretend to know how Michigan's coaching search went down. Even the vast majority of Michigan fans aren't sure what exactly happened. The general consensus is that Dave Brandon had a wink and nod agreement with Jim Harbaugh, and that it fell apart at the last minute when Harbaugh's NFL stock went nuclear. After that, no one knows for sure. There's a line of thinking that Les Miles was genuinely pursued, and politely declined, and then Michigan moved on to Hoke (making him a Plan C at the worst). There's another that says Miles was "pursued" only to placate the Miles faction that spent the last three years pouting and raving that they were ignored in 2007. This line of thinking points back to Brandon allegedly saying he would never hire Miles (everyone knows about the skeletons in his closet), and that he never offered Miles the job and was focused in on Hoke immediately after the Harbaugh agreement fell through. If that's the case, then that's not a bad Plan B. Brian at MGoBlog was famously opposed to Hoke's candidacy in 2007, and there remains a certain segment of the UM fanbase that believes Hoke is a patsy and Lloyd is really Emperor Palpatine, pulling the strings behind the scenes.

The fact is, Dantonio never did anything as a head coach prior to arriving at MSU that was more impressive than what Hoke did as a head coach prior to arriving at UM. Dantonio had success as a coordinator - on the staff of a proven cheater on a team that rode a felon and an ineligible athlete to a national title. As a head coach, Dantonio did nothing of merit at Cincinnati, and yet has proven himself to be a very dependable coach at State. Hoke also had success as an assistant, and he has a national championship ring on his finger too, from 1997. So he had an under .500 record at Ball State. Can you name a coach that had success at Ball State? Can you even tell me where Ball State is located? And yet he managed to win 12 games in his final season there in 2008, their first 10-win season since 1978. They scored the most points in school history that year, with 489. The second most was 2007, also coached by Hoke, with 409. After that, in third place? 377, in 1977. At San Diego State, Hoke took over a program that was 4-7, 5-7, 3-9, 4-8, and 2-10 in the five years prior to his arrival. Two years later, they were 9-4, losing four games by a combined 15 points, being the only team to stay within striking distance of TCU (until the Rose Bowl), and winning the Poinsettia Bowl by three touchdowns. No evidence exists to suggest Hoke is any worse of a coach than Dantonio was prior to taking over MSU's program. Using the aversion many Michigan fans had to him as proof he's a lousy coach is amusing, but useless.

Throw out all the excuses you want. "MSU's depth is scaring recruits away." "Some of these kids are too small." "Some of these kids are lifelong Michigan fans." "Hoke is selling a dream." "There will be mass decommits when we kill UM on the field this year."

Thank you, Rationalization Man. You have saved the village.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

The Battle of Michigan: 2011 and 2012

Part 4 and a continuation from the summer. Part 1: The Numbers. Part 2: The War of Perception. Part 3: The PSL.

In the almost six months since I finished Part 3 of the "Battle of Michigan" series, highlighting the ongoing battle between Michigan and Michigan State for the state's top high school prospects, much has changed. Both schools were burned by the loss of high level prospects previously thought to be near locks, and of course Michigan went through the change from Rich Rodriguez to Brady Hoke, a transition that is still causing ripples.

In Part 1, published on July 28th of last year, the 2011 instate battle looked as such:

And now we arrive at the present. Both coaches are coming off underwhelming, disappointing 2009 seasons on the field, and one of the two has some warmth under his seat. But at the same time, both are also becoming more entrenched in the state and building relationships with the coaches within the mitten.

Both UM and MSU have, at this moment, offered the following prospects this cycle:

1. LB Lawrence Thomas, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
2. WR DeAnthony Arnett, Saginaw
3. OL/DE Anthony Zettel, West Branch Ogemaw Heights
4. CB Valdez Showers, Madison Heights Madison
5. DE/LB Brennen Beyer, Canton Plymouth (Michigan)
6. RB Justice Hayes, Grand Blanc
7. OL Jake Fisher, Traverse City West (Michigan)
8. LB Ed Davis, Detroit Southeastern

Eight offers apiece at the end of July is abnormally high, indicating a deep year in-state. The early scoreboard reads Michigan 2, Michigan State 1, and it will of course be much different as time passes. If I had to guess today, I'd say Arnett goes out of state, Zettel goes to Michigan, Showers goes out of state, Hayes goes to Notre Dame, and Davis goes to MSU. Those are 100% guesses though, no inside info.

Furthermore, Michigan offered these kids, but MSU didn't:

1. CB Delonte Hollowell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
2. WR Shawn Conway, Birmingham Seaholm (Michigan)

Until the class is wrapped up and everyone is signed, this number is purely cosmetic, but at the moment, Michigan's 2011 in-state recruiting is at 40% (4 for 10).

On the other side, here are MSU's offers this year with no UM offer:

1. RB Onaje Miller, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
2. WR Jake Duzey, Troy Athens (Iowa)
3. LB/S Taiwan Jones, New Baltimore Anchor Bay (Michigan State)

Again, it's early, but MSU's percentage this year is 27.3% (3 for 11). This number in particular will most likely change wildly if history is any indicator, as MSU will probably extend several more in-state offers before the class is finished.

Since then, Michigan landed Justice Hayes, MSU landed Ed Davis, and both schools lost Anthony Zettel, DeAnthony Arnett, Valdez Showers, and Jake Fisher.

Here is the revised list of prospects that both UM and MSU offered in the 2011 recruiting cycle:
  1. DE/LB Lawrence Thomas, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  2. WR DeAnthony Arnett, Saginaw (Tennessee)
  3. OG/DE Anthony Zettel, West Branch Ogemaw Heights (Penn State)
  4. DE Brennen Beyer, Plymouth Canton (Michigan)
  5. CB Valdez Showers, Madison Heights Madison (Florida)
  6. RB Justice Hayes, Grand Blanc (Michigan)
  7. OT Jake Fisher, Traverse City West (Oregon)
  8. LB Ed Davis, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
In a bizarre twist, neither school offered the same instate prospect after the summer. These are the same eight players from July. The final head-to-head scoreboard for 2011 reads MSU 2, Michigan 2, with four going out of state. Zettel and Arnett were particularly damaging to UM and MSU, respectively. Zettel was a heavy lean to Michigan throughout the entire process, but had whispers in his ear that dissuaded any sort of early commitment, and when it became clear that Rich Rodriguez was a dead man walking, those whispers finally swayed him, and he committed to Penn State. Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison made a late charge, but Zettel stuck with his commitment to PSU. Arnett, on the other hand, favored MSU throughout most of the process, and as it turns out, MSU's coaches treated him as such, and ultimately dropped the ball. They took him for granted, and he slipped right through their fingers. After that, the numbers are a wash compared to the summer; Fisher dropped UM for Oregon, and Hayes was turned from Notre Dame.

Meanwhile, these are the final numbers for Michigan on 2011 instate; kids that UM offered but MSU did not. Shawn Conway is omitted because he is a non-qualifier.
  1. CB Delonte Hollowell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. LB Desmond Morgan, Holland West Ottawa (Michigan)
  3. CB Raymon Taylor, Highland Park (Michigan)
  4. RB Thomas Rawls, Flint Northern (Michigan)
These numbers combined with the ones above give Michigan a final 2011 instate recruiting percentage of 50% (6 of 12).

Conversely, here are MSU's signees instate who were not offered by Michigan:
  1. RB Onaje Miller, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
  2. TE Jake Duzey, Troy Athens (Iowa)
  3. LB Taiwan Jones, New Baltimore Anchor Bay (Michigan State)
  4. DE Damon Knox, Muskegon (Michigan State)
That puts MSU's final tally for 2011 at 41.7% (5 of 12). Michigan's percentage bumped up from 40% in July to 50% in the end, while MSU's percentage went up from 27.3 to 41.7.

The final tally during Rich Rodriguez's ill-fated tenure in Ann Arbor, straight up, head to head with Mark Dantonio: Michigan 11, Michigan State 10. The 11 for Michigan:
  1. Boubacar Cissoko
  2. Mike Martin
  3. Kenny Demens
  4. Rocko Khoury
  5. William Campbell
  6. Cameron Gordon
  7. Thomas Gordon
  8. Devin Gardner
  9. Austin White
  10. Brennen Beyer
  11. Justice Hayes
And the 10 for MSU:
  1. Fred Smith
  2. Tyler Hoover
  3. Edwin Baker
  4. Chris Norman
  5. Larry Caper
  6. Dion Sims
  7. William Gholston
  8. Mylan Hicks
  9. Lawrence Thomas
  10. Ed Davis
Factoring in the complete 2011 class now, in the last four classes, Michigan offered 40 prospects in the state of Michigan, landing 18 of the 40 (45%). Over the same time period, MSU offered 74 and landed 39 (52.7%).

So...that book is now closed. The "outsider" Rodriguez is gone, and the perception that he neglected the state of Michigan during his time here will live on in the minds of the people who want it to live on. Unfortunately, as is often the case, perception is often reality, facts be damned.

====================================================================

So now...here we sit, in early February 2011. Both UM and MSU have closed the door on the 2011 class and are in the process of diving head first into the 2012 class, especially in Michigan, where the overall talent level is probably the highest it's been since the loaded 2007 class. The last couple days in particular have seen a frenzy of offers going out instate from both sides, as Dantonio continues his mandate of making the state of Michigan #1 and Brady Hoke works to rebuild what Rich Rodriguez allegedly tore down.

Neither team has any commitments yet, but the list of prospects both schools have offered and are pursuing is impressive:
  1. LB James Ross, Orchard Lake St. Mary's
  2. WR Aaron Burbridge, Farmington Hills Harrison
  3. LB Royce Jenkins-Stone, Detroit Cass Tech
  4. CB Terry Richardson, Detroit Cass Tech
  5. DE Mario Ojemudia, Farmington Hills Harrison
In addition, Michigan has offered these prospects, but not MSU...:
  1. DT Dan O'Brien, Flint Powers
  2. TE Devin Funchess, Farmington Hills Harrison
  3. WR/TE Ron Thompson, Eastpointe East Detroit
...while MSU - but not UM - has offered the following:
  1. WR Dennis Norfleet, Detroit Martin Luther King
  2. OL Kelby Latta, Battle Creek Harper Creek
  3. DL Matt Godin, Novi Detroit Catholic Central
  4. DT Jabari Dean, Detroit Renaissance
  5. S Riley Bullough, Traverse City St. Francis
10 offers from MSU and 8 from UM - 13 prospects total - is a very, very large number so early in the process. It's a sure bet that both schools were certainly offer at least some of the kids the other side already has. And that's not even factoring in kids that neither have offered yet but are still evaluating and waiting to see in camp during the spring and summer.

It will be a very competitive year instate once again, and the battle lines are already being drawn. The general consensus among the "experts" and fans is that the top three are (in any order, really) Ross, O'Brien, and Burbridge. Cass Tech remains very friendly to Michigan, giving UM an inside edge on Jenkins-Stone and Richardson - and by extension James Ross at OLSM, who is close with the CT duo. Farmington Hills Harrison is still Spartan territory, and MSU has to be considered the favorite for Burbridge and Ojemudia (and Funchess if/when they offer). Bullough is quite obviously an MSU lock with his brother there and all the other connections, while Thompson grew up a big Michigan fan. O'Brien also grew up in a UM family and looks up to Mike Martin, but Michigan has some bridges to repair in the wake of the coaching change.

It's too early to make any sort of reasonable predictions about where these kids end up, how the numbers shake out, who wins the battle in 2012, but one thing is certain: the war of perception is over. Brady Hoke has already gotten back into the good graces of many high school coaches in the state of Michigan who were turned off or felt disrespected by Rich Rodriguez. You can argue the fairness of that until you're blue (or green) in the face, but the fact is, the outsider perception is that a "Michigan Man" is back in charge of Michigan, and the prestige and respect that that moniker entails is going to pay dividends, sooner or later.

Monday, August 2, 2010

The Battle of Michigan: The War of Perception

Part 2 of a multi-part series: Part 1: The Numbers.


First, a preface: Brian, in mentioning Part 1 of this series last week, seemed to imply that the very act of debating this is in essence conceding the debate itself, and that MSU's recruiting is the same mediocre product it's always been and Michigan fans shouldn't waste time analyzing it. I agree in part (and that's actually part of what I'm planning on discussing as this series thingie moves forward), but I also disagree at the same time. Michigan fans can bemoan the fact that we've fallen to the level where we're worried about State all they want; that doesn't change the reality that it's something that has gone from a blip on the radar to a tangible threat that cannot be ignored.

My opinion, anyway.


So. In Part 1, I did my best to put aside any editorializing and bias, simply relying on hard numbers and facts. Part 3 will be the part where I veer into the territory of complete opinion (MSU fans will want to skip that one). This part will probably fall somewhere in the middle - there will be numerous facts, but I will also be injecting a pro-Michigan viewpoint, so be forewarned if you're not of the Maize and Blue persuasion.

Anyway, as the title says, there is a war of perception going on within our state's borders. It's been going on for over two years now, and frankly, Michigan's losing. To some people, it's an irrelevant battle for some very particular reasons. For others, it's something that they believe has changed and must be corrected.

The perception is, simply put, that Michigan, and specifically Rich Rodriguez, disrespects high school coaches and players in the state of Michigan by pursuing similar (or in their minds, inferior) prospects in other states. These feelings are amplified by the presence of Rodriguez, a complete outsider from the hills of West Virginia, in contrast to the past 40 years of Bo-Mo-Lloyd. Never mind that Lloyd was from the hills of Tennessee himself. But that's another argument for another day.

I have a feeling that certain people would've tried to kick start this line of thought even if Lloyd Carr had stayed as UM head coach or if Les Miles had been hired or something, because its roots reside in East Lansing and the arrival of one Mark Dantonio. I mentioned this in passing in Part 1, but one of the cornerstones of Dantonio's tenure in East Lansing is the re-dedication to bringing in the in-state kids, in making Michigan State THE university of Michigan.

A quick glance at recruiting, and you see man-beasts like William Gholston and Lawrence Thomas going to Michigan State, the historically inferior program in the state, and it's easy to assume that MSU has successfully shifted the balance of power in the mitten.

However, when the argument comes up that Rodriguez is neglecting/disrespecting/ignoring/whatever in-state kids, consider these numbers:

2002: Michigan 11, MSU 7
2003: Michigan 6, MSU 4
2004: Michigan 5, MSU 8
2005: Michigan 6, MSU 6
2006: Michigan 4, MSU 7
2007: Michigan 5, MSU 8
2008: Michigan 5, MSU 13
2009: Michigan 4, MSU 12
2010: Michigan 4, MSU 10
2011 (to date): Michigan 4, MSU 3

In case it isn't obvious, these are the numbers of in-state recruits each program has taken in the Rivals era.

Outside of the one outlying year (2002), Rich Rodriguez's recruiting in the state of Michigan is almost identical to Lloyd Carr's final years. The "change" is the aforementioned in-state blitz by Dantonio, which has somehow been spun into a negative UM light at the same time. A pretty impressive spin, I must admit.

As for Gholston and Thomas, the in-state supers who would generally be thought of as players well above Michigan State's payrate and would either go to Michigan or go out of state:

Player A:
Consensus prep All-American . . . named Parade Magazine and Rivalnet National Player of the Year . . . selected Defensive Player of the Year by PrepStar, SuperPrep and Rivalnet . . . ranked among the nation's top five players by nearly every recruiting publication, including No. 1 by Rivalnet, No. 2 by The National Recruiting Advisor, No. 2 by Tom Lemming's Prep Football Report and No. 5 by SuperPrep . . . rated the state's top prospect by the Detroit Free Press, The Detroit News and Lansing State Journal . . . the Midwest's top-ranked player recorded 102 tackles (63 solos, 39 assists), including nine sacks, and forced four fumbles in 1998 . . .


Player B:
Consensus prep All-American . . . rated the nation�s No. 1 prospect by ESPN.com recruiting analyst Tom Lemming . . . also ranked among the country�s top players by SuperPrep (No. 8) . . . listed among the nation�s top receivers by Lemming (No. 1), PrepStar (No. 2) and SuperPrep (No. 3) . . . labeled the No. 1 player in the Midwest by PrepStar, SuperPrep and the Detroit Free Press . . . named Midwest Region Offensive MVP by PrepStar . . . rated the state�s top player by the Detroit Free Press, The Detroit News and Lansing State Journal . . . three-time all-state selection . . .


Player C:
SuperPrep, PrepStar and Max Emfinger All-American . . . rated among the nation's top 20 quarterbacks by SuperPrep (No. 15), Student Sports Magazine (No. 15), TheInsiders.com (No. 17) and ESPN.com's Tom Lemming (No. 18) . . . also ranked among the country's top passing QBs (No. 7) by USA Today's Max Emfinger . . . listed among the Midwest's top prospects by the Detroit Free Press (No. 15) and SuperPrep (No. 17) . . . ranked among the state's top seniors by The Detroit News (No. 3), Lansing State Journal (No. 3) and Detroit Free Press (No. 6) . . . named to The Detroit News and Detroit Free Press Dream Teams . . .

You look at those profiles, those accolades...they sound like players who would snub their noses at State and take their skills to Michigan, don't they?

Player A is TJ Duckett. Player B is Charles Rogers. Player C is Drew Stanton.

All Mark Dantonio has done is restore what John L. Smith destroyed. MSU has always fared better in-state, and they have always landed their fair share of in-state stars who were always more enamored with MSU than UM. The only historical difference right now is Michigan being in the tank at 8-16 and being run by a perceived outsider who has rubbed a few people the wrong way.

2009 recruit Reid Fragel in 2008:
"To me, being a prospect from Michigan, it sort of feels like Michigan is being disrespectful toward the recruits in this state by going outside the state," Reid Fragel, a senior tight end from Grosse Pointe South High School who's committed to Ohio State, told The Columbus Dispatch. "I've heard some things saying they might be looking to the South more, while Michigan State is looking in-state. I think that's really benefiting (the Spartans), with their recruiting class this year especially."

So...why is Reid Fragel entering his second year with Ohio State and not Michigan State? If respect is such a big thing to him, why did he commit to an out-of-state program (OSU) over the in-state one that offered him a scholarship (MSU)? He "heard some things" about Michigan looking to the South? What things? From who?

MSU running back Edwin Baker, in the same Daily article:
"Michigan is not looking in-state," said Baker, rivals.com's No. 2 in-state prospect. "They want to go down South and get away from (Michigan), and that's going to pull all the talent toward Michigan State's way."

I'll discuss what exactly is "pulling" all the talent Michigan State's way in Part 3, but Baker's claim is just as false now as it was when he made it two years ago. Particuarly weird coming from him, since he was the one Rich Rodriguez wanted (not Larry Caper). Fragel's bitterness was at least partially understandable, as he wanted to play tight end in college (like he is with OSU), but Michigan liked him more as an offensive tackle.

Even Rodriguez antagonist Dave Birkett (inadvertently?) took a swing at the perception that Rodriguez doesn't care about recruiting in Michigan:
In three years under Rodriguez, Michigan has signed players from 14 different states. Typically, the Wolverines do most of their recruiting in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but they also have a successful Florida pipeline and have secured commitments from non-traditional states like Arizona, Louisiana and Massachusetts.

Emphasis mine.

This is what Rodriguez has said all along ever since he arrived. If somebody can find a link with a direct quote from RR himself, thanks, but I have heard him say numerous times he wants UM's recruiting base to be MI-OH-PA, and then going down to Florida and branching out nationally from there. He has never - not once - said anything disparaging about the talent in this state in comparison to others.

And it would be easy to. Do you think it's a coincidence that MSU's always cleaned up in the state and has historically been a second tier program? The two are linked. You can make a chicken and the egg argument, but the end result is the same. MSU relies on in-state talent because they are historically mediocre and can't recruit nationally, and they are historically mediocre because their recruiting classes are full of state of Michigan kids who simply aren't as good as kids in other states. The state of Michigan isn't even on the radar for top states in terms of high school talent. After the big three (Florida, Texas, California), people rattle off states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia. Michigan never comes up, because there is never enough depth in state to support a high level program on its own merits, let alone two.

So, you ask why Michigan doesn't offer and take a dozen in-state prospects every year? Simply put: It's because they don't strive to be Michigan State. Mark Dantonio doesn't have some bleeding heart sentimentality to the poor inner city Detroit kids who are dying for a way out. He's taking what he can get. If MSU had the clout and the ability to go into Virginia and snag a Curtis Grant (5-star linebacker this year), does anyone really believe he'd turn him away in favor of Detroit Southeastern linebacker Ed Davis, who, while a fine player in his own right, doesn't measure up to Grant? Good coaches want the best players, period. And contrary to the partisan lines that have been drawn, I do believe both Rodriguez and Dantonio are good coaches. They're very different in their methods and beliefs, but they're both good coaches and both have the ability to identify talent.

But the fact remains, even now, Michigan's national footprint is much larger than Michigan State's. Don't believe me? Do you think Michigan State has the ability to go into South Carolina and take a star lineman away from the in-state Gamecocks? Can MSU go into Arizona and grab a pair of 4-star level prospects with numerous Pac-10 offers? Can they grab a Florida kid with offers from Florida, Ohio State, USC and Georgia? If and when Michigan State reaches this level, a lot of people are going to be in for a surprise when it comes to who gets offered, where they're from, etc.

I give the Spartans credit. They've absolutely jumped on the opportunity that's been served up to them on a platter. First time in a generation that UM is down, and they're exploiting it to the fullest with the most fundamental of tactics - targeting the hearts and minds of the masses. The two sides have very, very different views of reality, but sometimes it's the perception that matters the most, and there's little doubt that MSU is winning the war of perception. Doesn't matter what the truth is, it's the fundamental definition of the Big Lie: no matter how outlandish and how false something is, if you repeat it enough and never deviate from your message, eventually people will believe it.

Like I mentioned at the onset of this one, Part 3 will be even more opinionated than this one. MSU folks will want to skip it. A large portion of it will actually be a rehash of a few sensitive issues I've talked about here before, but sometimes things have to be repeated just so the message gets across.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

The Battle of Michigan: The Numbers


Part 1 of a multi-part series.

Since Rich Rodriguez arrived in Ann Arbor 19+ months ago, one of the main focus points of his tenure, outside the actual football field, has been the emphasis, or perceived lack of emphasis, on in-state recruiting. The picture has been painted that Rodriguez is neglecting the pool of talent in the state of Michigan, a picture that has been enhanced and promoted by a united front in East Lansing. The irony is this was not born out of a desire to attack Michigan and Rodriguez, but it was the plan for Michigan State the moment Mark Dantonio arrived in East Lansing a full year before Rodriguez at Michigan. After the abomination that was the John L. Smith era at MSU, Dantonio was brought in to restore a sense of stability and toughness, starting with a renewed focus on the state of Michigan and a rebuilding of the relationships with in-state high school coaches that eroded under Smith. This became easier once Lloyd Carr retired and Rodriguez was hired. But this will be discussed more in depth later in this series. This part will be dedicated solely to the numbers and facts.

Of coure, being that this delves into the bizarre and erratic nature of football recruiting, even "facts" can be disputed at times. Offers aren't offers, recruitments are rarely black and white, and perception counts. Here, I will attempt to lay out the facts as I know them in an unbiased and objective manner. My own personal opinion will be expressed at a later time. To be frank, this isn't easy. This is a hotly contested issue between Michigan and Michigan State fans, and both sides have, in many cases, a completely different perception of how things have unfolded in the last two and a half years in our state's battleground. For example, many Michigan fans don't look at the 2008 recruiting class when looking at Rodriguez's recruiting acumen, as the majority of the class was put together by Lloyd Carr and company. For the sake of this analysis though, the 2008 class will be considered, and here's my logic: the on-field results (all the 3-9 ugliness) are absolutely considered when looking at how Rodriguez has performed as UM coach. If you hold that against him, then you must also consider the 2008 class when looking at his recruiting. It's uneven to dismiss the 2008 class as Carr's, but then not give Rodriguez the leeway of a mulligan on the field. So, point is, the 2008 class will be factored in here.

Another issue of contention is, who actually had a scholarship offer, and who was actually recruited to the end? Fans on both sides are conveniently selective on this matter. In a perfect world, all recruiting cases would be cut and dry like a Thomas Gordon, a Jake Fisher, a Lawrence Thomas, etc, where both schools clearly offered the prospect, clearly recruited the kid to the end, and clearly wanted him in the class before losing out to the other side. Unfortunately, things aren't that even. MSU fans trumpet kids like Larry Caper and Dion Sims as recruiting victories over Michigan. Michigan fans point to Cameron Gordon as a win over MSU. The reality is slightly different (Caper's Michigan offer was from Carr, Rodriguez never recruited him; Sims was recruited by UM as a defensive end and the two sides never spoke after the summer; Gordon had an MSU offer early on but was skittish on his position and MSU filled up at WR), but for the sake of clarity and fairness, when compiling the analysis here, an "offer" will be treated as an offer, period. The one exception I will make that I can think of off the top of my head is Onaje Miller, because I know for a fact that Michigan did not extend any sort of offer in his direction, verbal or otherwise. It wasn't a case of UM offering but not pursuing, or offering and cooling later on. They simply didn't offer, at any point, period.

Anyway...with all that said, let's begin.

In the 2008 recruiting cycle, Michigan AND Michigan State both offered the following in-state prospects:
  1. CB Boubacar Cissoko, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. DE Nick Perry, Detroit Martin Luther King (USC)
  3. RB Jonas Gray, Detroit Country Day (Notre Dame)
  4. WR Fred Smith, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
  5. DT Mike Martin, Novi Catholic Central (Michigan)
  6. LB Kenny Demens, Detroit Country Day (Michigan)
  7. DE Tyler Hoover, Novi (Michigan State)
  8. OL Rocko Khoury, Traverse City West (Michigan)
  9. OL DeOn'tae Pannell, Birmingham Groves (Penn State)
The score in battles that both schools offered: Michigan 4, Michigan State 2.

In addition, these prospects were offered by Michigan, but not by Michigan State:
  1. OL Dann O'Neill, Grand Haven (Michigan)
O'Neill was the only one, putting Michigan's in-state recruiting for 2008 at 50% (10 offers, 5 commits).

On the other side, Michigan State offered these prospects, but Michigan did not:
  1. RB Mark Ingram, Flint Southwestern (Alabama)
  2. DB Charles Burrell, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
  3. OL Ethan Ruhland, Lake Orion (Michigan State)
  4. WR Keshawn Martin, Westland John Glenn (Michigan State)
  5. RB Caulton Ray, Birmingham Brother Rice (Michigan State)
  6. OL Anthony Woods, Melvindale (Michigan State)
  7. OL Chris McDonald, Sterling Heights Utica Ford (Michigan State)
  8. RB Glenn Winston, Detroit Denby (Michigan State)
  9. DB Tim Dandridge, Detroit Highland Park (Minnesota)
  10. DB Trenton Robinson, Bay City Central (Michigan State)
  11. OL John Deyo, Richland Gull Lake (Michigan State)
  12. ATH Myles White, Livonia Stevenson (Michigan State)
  13. OL Zach Hueter, North Branch (Michigan State)
These numbers put MSU's 2008 in-state recruiting at 59.1% (22 offers, 13 commits).

=================================================================

Understandably, the above data is taken with a grain of salt due to the coaching change at Michigan and the understandably dubious link Rodriguez had with assembling the class. The 2009 class is more clear.

In the 2009 recruiting cycle, Michigan and Michigan State both offered the following prospects:
  1. DT William Campbell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. RB Edwin Baker, Oak Park (Michigan State)
  3. LB Chris Norman, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  4. WR James Jackson, Grand Ledge (Ohio State)
  5. WR Cameron Gordon, Inkster (Michigan)
  6. RB Larry Caper, Battle Creek Central (Michigan State)
  7. TE Dion Sims, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (Michigan State)
  8. DB Thomas Gordon, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
The score in battles where both schools offered: Michigan State 4, Michigan 3.

The overall score after analyzing both 2008 and 2009: Michigan 7, Michigan State 6.

**(Again, I understand there are extra circumstances surrounding Cam Gordon, Caper, and Sims. I'm erring on the side of caution.)

These prospects were offered by Michigan in 2009, but not Michigan State:
  1. RB Teric Jones, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
Again, only one. That puts Michigan's 2009 in-state recruiting at 44% (9 offers, 4 commits).

Here are the prospects offered by MSU in 2009, but not Michigan:
  1. TE Reid Fragel, Grosse Pointe South (Ohio State)
  2. DT Blake Treadwell, East Lansing (Michigan State)
  3. LB Jeremy Gainer, Livonia Clarenceville (Michigan State)
  4. QB Andrew Maxwell, Midland (Michigan State)
  5. TE DeMarkus Bracy, Flint Southwestern (Cincinnati)
  6. OL Zac Matthias, Hemlock (Wisconsin)
  7. WR Dana Dixon, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  8. WR Donald Spencer, Ypsilanti (Michigan State)
  9. K Kevin Muma, Troy (Michigan State)
  10. LB Will Schwarz, Troy (Central Michigan)
  11. OL Micajah Reynolds, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
  12. WR Bennie Fowler, Detroit Country Day (Michigan State)
That puts MSU's 2009 in-state recruiting at 60% (12 out of 20).

At this point, a trend can obviously be seen, with MSU offering 42 in-state players in 2008 and 2009, while Michigan only offered 19. This will be discussed later in the series.

===================================================================

As each year passes and both coaches establish themselves in-state, the data becomes more and more reliable. Let's look at 2010.

Both schools offered the following prospects last year (NOTE: Ricardo Miller is obviously omitted from all data here, as he was obviously a transplant from Florida):
  1. DE William Gholston, Detroit Southeastern (Michigan State)
  2. QB Devin Gardner, Inkster (Michigan)
  3. QB Robert Bolden, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (Penn State)
  4. CB Dior Mathis, Detroit Cass Tech (Oregon)
  5. DE CJ Olaniyan, Warren Mott (Penn State)
  6. CB Mylan Hicks, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  7. RB Austin White, Livonia Stevenson (Michigan)
Much shorter list in this cycle. The score for 2010: Michigan 2, Michigan State 2.

And the 2008-2009-2010 score, head to head: Michigan 9, Michigan State 8.

To expand, Michigan offered these in-staters last year, while MSU did not:
  1. WR Jeremy Jackson, Ann Arbor Pioneer (Michigan)
  2. DT Johnathan Hankins, Detroit Southeastern (Ohio State)
That leaves Michigan's 2010 in-state recruiting at 33% (3 of 9).

Here are MSU's 2010 in-state offers Michigan didn't pursue:
  1. LB Max Bullough, Traverse City St. Francis (Michigan State)
  2. K/P Mike Sadler, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (Michigan State)
  3. LB Austin Gray, Warren Fitzgerald (Iowa)
  4. QB Joe Boisture, Saline (Michigan State)
  5. RB Nick Hill, Chelsea (Michigan State)
  6. DT Carl Davis, Sterling Heights Stevenson (Iowa)
  7. WR Tony Lippett, Detroit Crockett (Michigan State)
  8. RB Jeremy Langford, Westland John Glenn (Michigan State)
  9. DE Taylor Calero, Southfield Christian (Michigan State)
  10. OL Paul Jorgenson, Dewitt (Northwestern)
  11. WR Tony Jones, Grand Blanc (Northwestern)
  12. ATH Daniel Easterly, Detroit Cass Tech (Missouri)
  13. FB Niko Palazeti, Novi Catholic Central (Michigan State)
Again, a noticably wider net cast by the Spartans. Their 2010 numbers check in at 50% (20 offers, 10 commitments).

Also, I again acknowledge and understand some extenuating circumstances with a few of these kids like Gholston, Bolden, Mathis, Olaniyan. I can again go into these more indepth when I editorialize later in the series, but for now, again, an offer is an offer.

==================================================================

And now we arrive at the present. Both coaches are coming off underwhelming, disappointing 2009 seasons on the field, and one of the two has some warmth under his seat. But at the same time, both are also becoming more entrenched in the state and building relationships with the coaches within the mitten.

Both UM and MSU have, at this moment, offered the following prospects this cycle:
  1. LB Lawrence Thomas, Detroit Renaissance (Michigan State)
  2. WR DeAnthony Arnett, Saginaw
  3. OL/DE Anthony Zettel, West Branch Ogemaw Heights
  4. CB Valdez Showers, Madison Heights Madison
  5. DE/LB Brennen Beyer, Canton Plymouth (Michigan)
  6. RB Justice Hayes, Grand Blanc
  7. OL Jake Fisher, Traverse City West (Michigan)
  8. LB Ed Davis, Detroit Southeastern
Eight offers apiece at the end of July is abnormally high, indicating a deep year in-state. The early scoreboard reads Michigan 2, Michigan State 1, and it will of course be much different as time passes. If I had to guess today, I'd say Arnett goes out of state, Zettel goes to Michigan, Showers goes out of state, Hayes goes to Notre Dame, and Davis goes to MSU. Those are 100% guesses though, no inside info.

Furthermore, Michigan offered these kids, but MSU didn't:
  1. CB Delonte Hollowell, Detroit Cass Tech (Michigan)
  2. WR Shawn Conway, Birmingham Seaholm (Michigan)
Until the class is wrapped up and everyone is signed, this number is purely cosmetic, but at the moment, Michigan's 2011 in-state recruiting is at 40% (4 for 10).

On the other side, here are MSU's offers this year with no UM offer:
  1. RB Onaje Miller, Lansing Sexton (Michigan State)
  2. WR Jake Duzey, Troy Athens (Iowa)
  3. LB/S Taiwan Jones, New Baltimore Anchor Bay (Michigan State)
Again, it's early, but MSU's percentage this year is 27.3% (3 for 11). This number in particular will most likely change wildly if history is any indicator, as MSU will probably extend several more in-state offers before the class is finished.

==================================================================

The summary?

Since 2008, the head to head scoreboard is Michigan 11, Michigan State 9.

Since 2008, Michigan has offered 38 in-state prospects, landing commitments from 16 of those 38 (42.1%).

MSU, on the other hand, has offered a staggering 73 players in-state. Of those 73, they've landed 38 (52.1%).

In the last four classes, both schools have offered 32 players. Of those 32, we must exclude the five from this year who haven't committed yet for the sake of the data. So, from those 27 over the past four classes who signed somewhere and were offered by both UM and MSU, Michigan landed 11 (40.7%), Michigan State landed 9 (33.3%), and 7 (25.9%) signed elsewhere.

What does all this mean, and how does it affect certain perceptions that exist? Well, there's for you to determine on your own. As for what I think, that'll be in Part 2.

Monday, December 8, 2008

The fates make us wait.

I don't remember what it was like when Michigan was good at basketball. I was just over four months old when Glen Rice set the NCAA Tournament record for points scored while leading Michigan to the title. The only memory I have of Rumeal Robinson's free throws are whenever that game is shown on ESPN Classic. When the Fab Five had their heyday, I was four years old. The only thing I remember about the Fab Five is the shame I felt when everything they accomplished was swept away. Somewhere inside Crisler Arena's recesses, the legacy of Michigan's most talented basketball teams is tucked away, banished from the light of day.

I have only fuzzy memories of the 1998 team, the last time Michigan showed anything worth watching on the basketball court. When UCLA finished off Traylor, Taylor and Bullock in the 2nd round, I was watching. I didn't really have any sentient rooting interest in it yet, but the people around me were angry, they were disappointed. As Michigan left the court, one of the people in the room with me - I cannot for the life of me remember who - said something to the effect of, "I think this is the end."

And it was. The sins of the Michigan basketball program caught up with it. What started in February of 1996 with a rolling SUV came to a head in November 2002, as Michigan hung its head in shame and removed the Final Four banners that had hung in Crisler proudly since 1993. I hope that in 2012, when Michigan is free to embrace what the Fab Five did, they don't. Because doing so would mean having to acknowledge Chris Webber, and he deserves no acknowledgment. The fact may be that the main culprit here is dead and buried, but Webber was anything but a saint. He deserves no forgiveness. It brought me a twisted sense of joy when he retired from basketball without a championship.

Saturday, the healing began. After years of toiling around in mediocrity, after watching Tommy Amaker do his best to pull Michigan through probation only to fail spectacularly at coaching the talent he managed to bring in, there is finally reason to be proud of Michigan's basketball team. There will still be roller coaster moments, but after watching Amaker's teams fail at some of the most basic things, I'll be content to watch Beilein's team this year go through the ups and downs of a young team building a foundation. Besides, nothing could be worse than watching a 16-3 team lose 6 of 8 down the stretch, falling from a sure NCAA bid onto the bubble, and then losing the first game of the Big Ten Tournament to a team that went 5-11 in Big Ten play. Nothing could be worse than letting Greg Oden's Buckeyes go on a 10-0 run to end the game on Senior Day at Crisler while your two seniors, Dion Harris and Courtney Sims, are so unfocused, so unprepared for pressure situations, so poorly coached, that they both fail miserably at the free throw line down the stretch.

In the final eight minutes against Duke on Saturday, Michigan hit 15 of 17 free throws.


That's not to say Michigan is back. This is still a young team with little to no inside presence. There will be times in the Big Ten where we as fans become infuriated at the 1-3-1 because we have nobody to rebound and we give up 20 offensive boards. There will be games where open threes just won't fall. There will be games where DeShawn Sims plays more like Courtney Sims. There will be games where Manny Harris will be more turnover-prone than usual. But one thing is clear: The free pass that Michigan State has been operating under in this state since the mid 1990s is over. There is no wrecked SUV and shady booster spreading money around to players to bury Michigan and help Michigan State seize the state anymore. I'm not discrediting Tom Izzo. He's a great coach, and his list of achievements is very impressive, but for all the Final Fours and NBA players on that list, it omits one thing: the fact that it was all done while Michigan swirled the drain. It's pretty easy to rake in the star recruits and win big when you're essentially recruiting against no one.

And for the Spartan trolls that inhabit the RCMB and SpartanMag with your witty "TGCICB" taunts, I have a response that you might be familiar with: Pride comes before the fall. *wink wink*

It feels like the Twilight Zone around Michigan parts, these days. Nobody wants to talk football, it's all basketball now. We're all geeked over a huge win on the hardwood instead of the gridiron. Basketball games are being used as big recruiting tools for big recruits. 11 months ago, Terrelle Pryor teased us by visiting Michigan, and the basketball game he attended was so quiet you could hear crickets in Crisler. There was a slightly different atmosphere on Saturday for the recruits that were there.

Speaking of which...people puzzle me. The thought process that some people use on internet message boards is just weird. There are some people who think that the decisions made by those in the past will have a direct impact on completely different, unrelated people in the present. I understand the fear and the paranoia. When you're burnt once, you always flinch a little bit when you go near the stove again.


The saga of Ronald Johnson two years ago left a gigantic, scarring burn on everybody that is a Michigan fan and follows recruiting. Not many people know the full story behind it, and I'm not one of the ones who does. What I do know is that all the drama that went down behind the scenes that tore RoJo away from Michigan and sent him across the country to USC, none of that is happening with William Campbell, the cause of everyone's angst this year. Yes, it is nervewracking that Campbell decommitted from Michigan. It's unsettling that he is visiting big players like Alabama, LSU, Miami, and Florida. But lets consider the following:
  • Campbell has two current teammates (Teric Jones and Thomas Gordon) committed to Michigan, along with one former teammate already at Michigan (Boubacar Cissoko).
  • Campbell's head coach at Cass Tech, Thomas Wilcher, is a former player at Michigan.
  • Campbell's direct family is all solidly in favor of Campbell going to Michigan.
That last one is probably the most critical. Somewhere along the line during RoJo's recruitment, there was a fracture. Whether it was between the Michigan staff and RoJo's family, or RoJo's high school coaches (who were also pro-Michigan) and RoJo's family, who knows. But something happened somewhere that disconnected the Johnsons from the University of Michigan. That, to this point, is not even remotely close to being the case with Campbell. USC, the program that can swoop in and steal any star prospect from any power in any state, abandoned any hope for luring Campbell away and didn't even host him on an official visit two weeks ago because they don't believe he can be swayed away from Michigan.

Big Will isn't Ronald Johnson. And he isn't Nick Perry. RoJo and Perry fleeing Michigan to USC in 2007 and 2008 has no bearing on Campbell in 2009. It's a shame they got away. RoJo probably would've been a starter for Michigan this past season, either at corner or at free safety. Perry would have us all feeling a lot better about the defensive end position headed into next season. It would've been pretty cool seeing three highly touted Detroit defensive linemen on the same line next year with Brandon Graham (Crockett), Perry (Martin Luther King) and Campbell (Cass Tech). But it didn't work out that way.

Instead we'll just have to hopefully settle for two.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Way too early: 2010 recruiting.

First: Both MGoBlog and Varsity Blue contain excellent recruiting coverage already. Once the 2009 recruiting season winds down, they will no doubt surpass the quality that will be presented here.

Second: Once 2010 recruiting heats up more, I will create a virtual map, similar to the one I created for the 2009 recruits.

Third: I use Rivals rankings when it comes to star ratings and such (which obviously are not available as of yet).

Fourth: Premium Rivals and Scout content that requires cash money subscriptions will not be shared here unless the actual news of the article is in the snippet given to nonsubscribers.

Without further adieu...the way way way too early forecast on 2010 recruiting.

QUARTERBACKS
PlayerHometownHigh SchoolOffer?
CompetitionLinks
Robert Bolden
Orchard Lake, MI
St. Mary's Prep
No
MSU, CMU, Vandy, OSU, ND
MSU offer
Devin Gardner
Inkster, MI
Inkster
Yes
MSU, OSU, Cincinnati, ND
MSU offer; UM offer ($); GW 40-yd TD in season opener
Cornelius Jones
Spartanburg, SC
Spartanburg
Yes
None yet
UM offer

8/30 Editorial: With Shavodrick Beaver and one other duel-threat QB coming in with the 2009 class (likely Tate Forcier), the need for a top flight scrambler is diminished. But both Gardner and Bolden are big-time instate prospects for 2010, and both fit the spread 'n' shred to a tee. Bolden receiving an offer is a foregone conclusion, and it would be quite a downer if Michigan failed to snag either of the instate guys.

RUNNING BACKS
PlayerHometownHigh SchoolOffer?
CompetitionLinks
Austin White
Livonia, MI
Stevenson
Yes
MSU, ND, Wisconsin
Camped at ND; UM and MSU offers ($)
Nick Hill
Chelsea, MI
Chelsea
No
MSU, EMU, CMU, Stanford, ND

Corey Brown
Springfield, PA
Cardinal O'Hara
No
PSU, OSU, Pitt, Maryland, Illinois, Rutgers
Offers galore

8/30 Editorial: Early opinion on White has him as possibly the best player in the state next year. Bad news: he has deep, deep Spartan lineage, and is probably going there. Not much non-premium info is available on Hill yet. 2010 RB Corey Brown is not to be confused with 2009 WR/CB Corey Brown from Gateway HS, who has already committed to Ohio State.

WIDE RECEIVERS
PlayerHometownHigh SchoolOffer?
CompetitionLinks
Ricardo Miller
Orlando, FL
Dr. Phillips
*Yes
OSU, USF, Tennessee, PSU, others
UM leads ($); Offer coming soon/mom loves UM (and went there!)
Jeremy Jackson
Ann Arbor, MI
Huron
Yes
Florida, Texas, Iowa, Minnesota, etc.
RB coach Fred Jackson's son; Recruiting Planet links

8/30 Editorial: Miller is expected to be a bigtime recruit from Florida for 2010, the high 4-star kind. Early buzz on Jackson is that he has top 100 potential. Jackson is also one of the most frequent visitors at Michigan practices, which is natural since his dad is a coach there. In the latest story from the Recruiting Planet link, it gives meat of a Rivals article in which Jackson says he won't pick a school simply because his dad coaches there, and he may want to go out of state after living in Michigan all his life. This is somewhat concerning, but since Jackson's timetable has him deciding on a school after his junior season, nothing is in stone yet.


OFFENSIVE LINE
PlayerHometownHigh SchoolOffer?
CompetitionLinks
Christian Lombard
Barrington, IL
Fremd
Yes
ND, Illinois, Iowa
Camped at UM ($); Camped at ND ($); 2007 Lemming fluff; Recruiting Planet

8/30 Editorial: Obviously there are many, many more OL prospects that can and will be added here, but there isn't a lot of news out on many (or at least many that involve Michigan) yet. Even if Michigan pulls a coup and somehow steals Marcus Hall from Glenville this year (they won't), with the numbers on the 2009 recruiting board thin at OL, it will be a priority for 2010. Lombard is on the fast track for the 2010 Rivals 100. The bad news: if UM's going up against ND for him, the football gods dictate that Michigan loses that battle.

DEFENSIVE END
PlayerHometownHigh SchoolOffer?
CompetitionLinks
William Gholston
Detroit, MI
Southeastern
No
OSU, MSU
Camped at OSU ($); Camped at MSU
Joseph Okafor
Bellaire, TX
Bellaire
No
Texas, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma, etc.

Jamel Turner
Youngstown, OH
Ursuline
No
OSU, MSU, Illinois


8/30 Editorial: Defensive end remains a dire need for Michigan. Tim Jamison is a senior in 2008, Brandon Graham is a junior, and there's very little after that. The 2009 recruiting scene could not have been worse for UM and DEs, as nearly all of the quality ones are outside the midwest. Among those remaining on that board are Anthony Lalota from New Jersey, Craig Roh from Arizona (who is visiting for the Utah game), and the mysterious Cornelius Carradine from Cincinnati, whose film is 4-5 star material, but he seems to have SOME kind of off-field issue, although there honestly is no confirmation on that. Regardless, unless Michigan sweeps up all three of those aforementioned, DE will remain a pressing issue into 2010 recruiting.

Okafor and Turner are linkless because the only mention of Michigan when it comes to them recently is the fact that Rivals lists UM on their college choices list. Okafor will be a top player in Texas next year, and will probably go to Texas, LSU or Oklahoma. Turner could very well be Ohio's best player in 2010, which of course means Ohio State will not let him escape.

As for Gholston, having a highly regarded prospect at a position of need in your own backyard is almost always an excellent thing. Except in this case. Gholston is the cousin of Vernon Gholston, certified Michigan QB Killer. Oh, and Mark Dantonio was the one who recruited him to Ohio State, and is now doing the same at MSU (with the added bonus of possibly playing for Izzo, as William Gholston plays hoops too). The odds of Michigan overcoming all of the above and snatching him away from OSU or MSU seems slim at this point.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE
PlayerHometownHigh SchoolOffer?
CompetitionLinks
Anthony Render
Trotwood, OH
Trotwood-Madison
No
USC, ND, Florida, others
Calls USC his dream school

8/30 Editorial: Another position at which there is little data available right now. Render does not mention Michigan in any article I can find, premium or otherwise, and yet Scout lists Michigan in his profile. I cannot imagine why, other than the fact that Michigan got commitments from three Trotwood-Madison players in the 2008 class and is recruiting offensive lineman Chris Freeman in the 09 class. If Render is as impressive as his early "offer" list indicates, you can bet Michigan will give him a ring, since there is a mini-pipeline, and DT is another position of moderate need.

LINEBACKER
PlayerHometownHigh SchoolOffer?
CompetitionLinks
Sam Bergen
East Stroudsburg, PA
East Stroudsburg
No
ND, PSU, Pitt, Illinois, BC, Stanford
Camped at ND and UM; scored 75-yard TD at FB in season opener
Zac Rosenbauer
Lima, OH
Shawnee
No
Akron, MSU, OSU, others
Recruiting Planet - hearing from UM, grew up OSU, etc.

8/30 Editorial: Linebacker may actually be a position that Michigan is set at, for the most part. They're already young at linebacker, brought in a great haul last year (Fitzgerald, Witherspoon, Demens and Hill, although one may move to DE), they have commitments from Jordan Barnes and Brandin Hawthorne this year, along with "safety" Mike Jones, who will almost certainly play outside linebacker. They remain in the hunt for Jelani Jenkins, but that's a while off.

CORNERBACK
PlayerHometownHigh SchoolOffer?
CompetitionLinks
Dior Mathis
Detroit, MI
Cass Tech
No
Miami, Cincinnati, others
All that needs to be said
Lo Wood
Apopka, FL
Apopka
No
Florida, others most likely
Lots of connections to UF

8/30 Editorial: Morgan Trent has one year left, Donovan Warren has three and may only take two. Boubacar Cissoko was Michigan's prize recruit on the defensive side last year, and will see lots of nickel time in 2008 before probably starting once Trent leaves. After that it's sketchy. Justin Turner is a highly touted 2009 recruit who may or may not move to corner from safety. Michigan once sat pretty for 5-star 2009 corner Darius Winston, but that ship has sailed.

Dior Mathis seems like a Cissoko clone: Pint-sized, fast, and very feisty. The Cass Tech connection would seem to work out in UM's favor, but it won't. Mathis grew up a Miami fan, and as the link says, he will almost certainly commit to them in early September when official offers go out.

Wood will probably be a Gator, but he's listed because his teammate is Jeremy Gallon, a 2009 commitment to Michigan.

SAFETY
PlayerHometownHigh SchoolOffer?
CompetitionLinks
Marvin Robinson
Eagle Lake, FL
Lake Region
Yes
UM leads OSU, Georgia, USC, UCLA
Recruiting Planet link dump
Sean Parker
Harbor City, CA
Narbonne
No
USC, UCLA, Georgia Tech, Florida
Likes Michigan

8/30 Editorial: At this point many (most?) Michigan fans are already including Marvin Robinson in the 2010 class, and are giddy about it. Robinson was offered by Michigan as a sophomore and dominated the Top Gun camp in Florida in July. He's getting bigger, too. Rivals lists him at 6'1, 190, but the camp reported him at 6'2, 205. If he stays at safety (where Michigan is recruiting him), he could become a predator-like assassin in the mold of Sean Taylor or Taylor Mays.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

A lesson in Southern hospitality.

Two months ago, 5-star cornerback Darius Winston out of West Helena, Arkansas decommitted from the Razorbacks and named Michigan as his leader:

Darius Winston, the nation's No. 2 cornerback in the class of 2009 and the class' 20th overall player, has de-committed from the University of Arkansas. He plans to re-open his recruitment, but he considers Michigan the leader for his services.

Since then, he shut down his recruitment, re-opened it, and cooled on his "Michigan leads" comments. Michigan fans were still cautiously optimistic. Said optimism was dimmed in the last couple days when Winston said he was going to commit on September 5th, which means he would not have visited Michigan's campus. Not necessarily a death knell, considering DeQuinta Jones and Jeremy Gallon committed without visiting, but that death knell may have been sounded with this free Scout article.

In it, Winston says his final five are Arkansas, Clemson, Michigan, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. He says he has already decided, but will wait to announce until the 5th.

His blurb on M:

How about Michigan?

"They have a good opportunity at cornerback for me, but they also will let me return punts and kickoffs. If I am at Michigan, they will let me display my skills. There is a lot of opportunity their."

Good opportunity is defined as thus: After this season, Morgan Trent is gone, Donovan Warren is a junior (and could be entering his final year at Michigan), Boubacar Cissoko is a sophomore and a probable starter, Troy Woolfolk and J.T. Floyd are present but not probably starter quality, Justin Turner is a freshman and possibly a safety. The chance of Winston contributing significantly as a freshman and starting as a sophomore is high.

All of that is probably rendered moot by this blurb from the same Scout article, where Winston possibly lets the cat out of the bag:

What stands out about Ole Miss?

"I just love that whole coaching staff. I feel like they are going to turn it around at Ole Miss. I would love to be a part of that. I plan on taking an official visit to Ole Miss on Labor day weekend, when they play Memphis."

Anymore official visits on tap?

"That is it."

Should people read anything into that?

"I guess you could say that, yes sir (laugh)."

As much as you can analyze the comments of a high school kid, that would appear to be the dousing of any chances Michigan had with Winston, as it seems he will pick Ole Miss, which is...surprising, to say the least. Uber-recruiter Ed Orgeron isn't coaching in Oxford anymore, and Houston Nutt has been getting taken to the cleaners by Sly Croom in recruiting this year. Looks like his ties to high schools in Arkansas have paid off in this case, though.

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the first in a lengthy line of lessons Michigan fans learn about recruiting the South. You can read all the articles and quotes where players like Winston (Arkansas), Rueben Randle (Louisiana), Dennis Thames (Mississippi), Sam Montgomery (South Carolina) and Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama) talk about Michigan and how they plan to visit. In the end, these are kids from the South, and they've been raised in a world where football is religion, and the pressure to stay home and play for the home teams is immeasurable. It's really impossible for someone in Michigan to understand it. But we're going to learn about it very fast, when Winston stays in the South, Randle picks LSU, Thames picks Mississippi State, Montgomery picks South Carolina and Kirkpatrick signs with Saban. Florida is a different beast altogether. The state is so rich and oozing with talent, it's impossible to keep outsiders out. Miami, Florida and Florida State will get their pickings, but it's open for others too.

There is a reason Lloyd Carr and Ron English's theft of Donovan Warren from under USC's nose at Long Beach Poly in 2007 was so shocking: 9 times out of 10, home is where the heart is.

Friday, August 1, 2008

Official: Morris commits to Michigan.

Oh sweet Michigan basketball-hating god, you have been on duty for the better part of 15 years. From Chris Webber's timeout to the car accident on Mateen Cleaves' recruiting visit that exposed Michigan basketball as a semi-professional organization to a 10-year + drought from relevant play in March to the Shamaker era that wasted talent like Daniel Horton, Courtney Sims and Dion Harris...Michigan basketball-hating god, thank you for taking the day off.

Darius Morris has committed to Michigan.

“It came down to picking the school that showing me the most love and that school was Michigan,” Morris said. “They have been recruiting me hard for a while now, and that was one of the big reasons I decided on going there for the next four years of my life.”


(Thank you, UM Hoops.)

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Morris announces tomorrow.

MLive: California guard Morris to announce decision Friday

This is the prize jewel in terms of Michigan basketball recruiting. Beilein's been after Darius Morris for a long time now, and Morris, along with his family, have really fallen in love with him.

Getting good talent wasn't the problem under Shamaker (Daniel Horton, Courtney Sims), but there was no developing of that talent at all. With an actual competant coach on the sidelines, things are hopefully looking up.

Morris has been considered a Michigan lean for a while. Lets hope the deal is sealed tomorrow.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

2009 Recruiting Map.

In my effort to cover recruiting more (since I follow it way too much to begin with), I composed an interactive U.S. map detailing a vast majority of recruits Michigan has snagged or is targeting.

Michigan Recruiting Map 2009

Things to know:
  1. Prospects with M offers that have committed elsewhere (ex: Dorian Bell, Devonte Holloman) are not included.
  2. Prospects that are uncommitted with M offers that appear to be heavy, heavy leans elsewhere with weight behind such lean (ex: Jamaal Berry saying it's 90% that he'll go to Ohio State) are not included.
  3. Prospects that commit elsewhere will be removed (probably with a little update here).
  4. This is just the first draft of the map. I'll probably update each recruit's profile with links, quotes, other measurables, etc.
  5. I'll be happy if Michigan lands one of the 5-stars on there. Not because I obsess over star ranking, but because it's aesthetically pleasing to see a recruit with 5 stars next to his name commit to your team.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Pudding > snake oil, apparently.

An annoying week for Michigan fans had the cherry topped on it tonight, as offensive lineman Zach Martin committed to Notre Dame.

This one especially stings, as two weeks ago Martin was considered a "lock" to Michigan. He was supposed to visit last weekend one last time and then make his decision (which everyone assumed would be for UM) a week or two later. Instead, Martin's visit to Michigan was postponed, he visited Notre Dame last weekend instead, and a week later he's talking to Chuck Weis on the phone and they're celebrating their unholy union.

For those not keeping track, the list of offensive linemen that were coveted by Michigan but chose Notre Dame since 2006 is as follows:

Bartley Webb, Sam Young, Matt Romine, Braxston Cave, Lane Clelland, Trevor Robinson, Alex Bullard, Zach Martin, and Chris Watt.

Conversely, Michigan has beaten Notre Dame for exactly one lineman: Michael Schofield, a recruit from this year.

Conclusion: assuming the pressure to remain self-righteous and holier than thou outweighs the pressure to win and hence Notre Dame is NOT paying recruits, Jabba the Weis is a witch doctor when it comes to recruiting. Sam Young - along with the rest of the Notre Dame offensive line - was spectacularly, legendarily awful last year, and yet recruits continue to eat the pudding Weis feeds them, which I'm sure is doing two things:
  1. Exulting the virtues of playing for the university of college football
  2. Whispering in their ears all sorts of negative things about Rich Rodriguez and playing for Michigan.
This must be some kind of epically negative recruiting though, to overcome Three and Nine and occupation of the basement in pretty much every offensive category.

Are the days of Jon Runyan, Jon Jansen, Jake Long, etc, done at Michigan? Possibly. But a big "fuck you" to Weis (and all the other coaches doing the exact same thing) for painting that picture like it's set in stone.

Opinion: Rodriguez's offense takes away from the linemen, giving them less time to shine (as opposed to zone lefting it every play so Jake Long can destroy all comers) and ultimately hurting their NFL stock.

Fact: Rodriguez has had one memorable lineman on his teams - Dan Mozes, a 2-star recruit whose biggest offer other than WVU in 2002 was Kentucky. How did that end up? Mozes was a consensus All-American and Rimington Award winner in 2006 while serving as the center of the offensive line that helped produce the 2nd-ranked rushing attack in the country (303 YPG). Chances Rodriguez will have better offensive linemen on his Michigan teams than he had at West Virginia: roughly 120%.

So yeah, that's some strong pudding Weis is feeding his boys.

I have a feeling we might have some stronger stuff once the season starts, though.